If you are not up late worrying about AI, if you haven't begun to prepare for the end, if you do not fear the face of SHODAN, I have failed.
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I know what you mean, but I suspect that will change - also see SSC surveys on what percentage of researchers believe in strong AI by 2030
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it won't change absent groundbreaking new methods none of us can presently foresee
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There's a pattern of innovations that seems to be picking up speed. I am guilty of extrapolation, but only this!
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I'm saying incrementing on what we know now isn't going to get us there
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either Something Big is discovered that radically alters the playing field, or it doesn't, in which case it doesn't happen
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I'm not saying that can't occur, I'm saying whether it will occur is at this time unknowable
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strong point. but, is it really unknowable or is it just hard to predict? for instance, on a market for predictions of some kind
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market solution works only if some subset of participants have knowledge of the outcome
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New conversation -
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Not convinced familiarity with the state of the art implies superior forecasting ability
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