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algekalipso's profile
Andrés Gómez Emilsson
Andrés Gómez Emilsson
Andrés Gómez Emilsson
@algekalipso

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Andrés Gómez Emilsson

@algekalipso

Views of a Transhuman neo-Buddhist from the future on sociology, artificial intelligence, mathematics, philosophy, neonoir film and the post-singularity era.

Stanford, CA
qualiacomputing.com
Joined April 2011

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 2
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      I think I’m failing to understand something basic. What exactly is the endgame with this social distancing strategy? Doesn’t flattening the curve just mean moving the spike to later when you try to ease the mitigation measures?

      63 replies 34 retweets 246 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 2
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      The responses make me think far few people have looked at the y-axis of the flattening graphs. We’re not talking turning 2x into 0.95x capacity. We’re talking something like 10x to 3x or so. The overwhelming of hospitals cannot be avoided. At best fewer people die waiting.

      9 replies 3 retweets 51 likes
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    3. Divia Eden‏ @diviacaroline Apr 2
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      Replying to @vgr

      I think it’s too soon to really say how well lockdown is working. And that if R0 isn’t below 1 with current measures, we will try to tighten it even more.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Andrés Gómez Emilsson‏ @algekalipso Apr 2
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      Replying to @diviacaroline @vgr

      I did the math in early March and like @Plinz I concluded that to "flatten the curve" you would need to keep R around 1 (cybernetically up and down that level) for anywhere between 5 to 10 whole years (at current medical capacity). That's why we either squash or mitigate.

      10:57 PM - 2 Apr 2020
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      • No-elle 🐘 Andrew Roberts Zoé-Lise Deck-Léger Jesper Ostman Rahul Ramchandani Andy Vargas William Eden Venkatesh Rao Joscha Bach
      3 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
        1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 2
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          Replying to @algekalipso @diviacaroline @Plinz

          Yep

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        1. Divia Eden‏ @diviacaroline Apr 2
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          Replying to @algekalipso @vgr @Plinz

          Do you have a guess about what the current R0 is in SF, NYC, or anywhere else?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Jesper Ostman‏ @Jesper_G_Ostman Apr 3
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          Replying to @algekalipso @diviacaroline and

          What's the mitigation strategy you mention, if not flatten the curve?

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