Some quick thoughts on the UK's new COVID strategy:pic.twitter.com/x7sRdrm5HF
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Some quick thoughts on the UK's new COVID strategy:pic.twitter.com/x7sRdrm5HF
Have been thinking this through today. Assume a vaccine is not coming soon enough, and the virus can not be contained, and it makes *some* sense. Then I think the thing we try to minimise is the number of people who get sub-standard treatment because of constrained resources...
i.e. the number of times you have to triage. So in an ideal situation, you hit the maximum capacity of the health service, and stay there until everyone has had it, but we don’t have fine enough control for that. We’re still something like 15 doublings away from 100% exposure...
And my back-of-the-envelope says the no-triage limit is somewhere between 0.1% and 1% of the population infected, given a 5% requirement for intensive care. Right now, the confirmed spread in the U.K. is less than one in 150k, the real spread maybe somewhere around 1 in 50k?...
But the ideal place now would be something like 1 in 1k to 10 in 1k, smoothly distributed. Of course, as soon as you hit that, you want the infection change rate to be zero, as many new patients as recovered or died patients. I don’t think even closing schools is enough...
...at that point. Obviously we can aim to increase capacity, but I would be amazed if we can get even a single order of magnitude change early enough to be useful. What I don’t understand is why people are talking about actions during the peak. By the time 1% are infected...
...we’re many doublings from the peak (and the growth will be slowing) but any marginal cases will be getting poor treatment at best. Getting people to stay home during two peak weeks is not nearly enough. Maybe six weeks? More?
Apologies to your TL, got carried away!
Hi James! Yes, that's very much how I've been started think about it. See: https://www.facebook.com/algekalipso/posts/2850373818388090 … (should be a blogpost by now, but yeah...)
I like it! I only really worked through it properly this morning, so I think I will try to write it up properly this evening as well. I’ll link your post when I do. I do wish the U.K. govt was more open in its thinking, even if it is a tough subject.
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