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alexismadrigal's profile
Alexis C. Madrigal
Alexis C. Madrigal
Alexis C. Madrigal
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@alexismadrigal

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Alexis C. MadrigalVerified account

@alexismadrigal

co-host @KQEDForum | contributing writer @TheAtlantic | book @mcdbooks | board @chptr510 @leaders_up | co-ran @covid19tracking | Earthseed, 🇲🇽, 🇺🇸, he/him

Oakland Department of Fantics
howthebaywasbuilt.com
Joined December 2007

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      Short thread. I keep seeing claims on how some places may have reached herd immunity & calculations on whether a variant is more virulent or disporportionately affects the young etc. These are not easy things to discern so let’s not do confident back-of-the-envelope calculations.

      19 replies 178 retweets 776 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      True seroprevalence is not easy to figure out outside of true random sampling—rarely done. A lull in cases after a surge? Maybe, maybe not. (Not very likely, to be honest). Blood bank etc. sampling? Maybe. Confounding issues are thorny. Modeling? Very parameter dependent. Hard Q.

      8 replies 8 retweets 159 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Apr 2021

      More younger people at the ICU compared to past? Could be an outbreak affecting them more because of network structure or behavior, vaccine/past immunity among elderly, ICU capacity change compared to past or even temp reporting blip in some countries, among many other things.

      6 replies 11 retweets 151 likes
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      Alexis C. Madrigal‏Verified account @alexismadrigal 8 Apr 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      One more factor: changing admissions criteria. It could be that more very sick young people are being admitted because more vulnerable older people are not taking up beds.

      6:37 AM - 8 Apr 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 23 Likes
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      4 replies 1 retweet 23 likes
        1. Boy Mom  💙‏ @Shawneemom 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @alexismadrigal @zeynep

          This makes sense. In past surges, there wouldn’t have been beds available for younger people who were very sick also. Triage says younger age = better outcomes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. bowerbird‏ @bbirdiman 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @alexismadrigal @zeynep

          could be. but aren't

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. bowerbird‏ @bbirdiman 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @alexismadrigal @zeynep

          could be. but aren't hospital people saying that the young patients they are treating are more severe? and aren't younger deaths increasing?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. Lil Slugger‏ @LiddleSlugger 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @alexismadrigal @zeynep

          This explanation doesn’t make sense to me. If fewer beds are taken up by old people, thereby freeing up beds for young people, then you’d expect to see more admissions of young people, but a *lower death rate*. Because the level of sickness required for an ICU admission is lower.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Lil Slugger‏ @LiddleSlugger 8 Apr 2021
          Replying to @LiddleSlugger @alexismadrigal @zeynep

          @zeynep

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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