You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
1/n One of @gwern's best essays ever is a review of a book nobody has ever heard of.
It's about looking into the future, seeing exactly what awaits us, and being unable to capitalize on this knowledge, because you only know *what* will be and not *when* it will be.
2/n "one quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, but X was off by a few years & jumped the gun & so Z was the person who wound up taking all the spoils."pic.twitter.com/ze2ZMAikBU
3/n "A good idea will draw overly-optimistic entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant."pic.twitter.com/5oLaX8nxh3
4/n and what if you realize that the time for the technology you're in love with has not come yet? If you thought "change the field" —you got it wrong. You continue working on it for many years without end in sight...pic.twitter.com/a4loh9HiAU
5/n ...and then when Moore's Law finally makes your technology viable you turn around and say "see! I was right all along!"pic.twitter.com/C9JIQFpWBT
6/n "we are building the world’s 20th search engine at a time when most of the others have been abandoned as being commoditized money losers. We’ll strip out all of the ad-supported news & portal features so you won’t be distracted from using the free search stuff."pic.twitter.com/dxUhLUbmgm
7/n @backus has a bunch more fascinating examples of early internet businesses that were right; but too earlyhttps://twitter.com/backus/status/1057025878444523520 …
8/n "Bill Gates was not the first & only Gates, he was the last Gates; ... Mark Zuckerberg was not the first & only Zuckerberg, he was the last Zuckerberg"pic.twitter.com/MloCTjn0F0
9/n can you really act on your superior knowledge? "There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things."pic.twitter.com/K4oevAFwGv
n/n "When a knife drops, a fraction of a second divides a brilliant save from an emergency-room visit. The 'bleeding edge'." the review: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/373688680 …pic.twitter.com/OJUO5wxxna
"In case of the iPod, Jobs seems to have had the patience to wait before USB, battery and internet technologies became mature enough for Apple to release the device" http://wavefunction.fieldofscience.com/2018/08/technological-convergence-in-drug.html …pic.twitter.com/EvghWd81Fa
"If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?" Comments from LW gives a new perspective about wealth and intellect and luck. Always wondered if Luck has a theory, what would be!
Wish someone would write on this. Has Taleb?
Well, gwern commented on the topic in his review.
This is totally true and represents my real sin of the past few years. I was three years too early with my book, "Fourth Transformation." About augmented reality. Maybe five. It is so easy to get excited by companies spending billions because a tech is "close."
VoIP! 100s of telecom startups tried/died until @Skype showed the time was right: Moore finally added mics/speakers to computers, signal processing, connections to carry compressed voice, IM UI, payment systems.
Now VoIP is just a freeish API call
@threader_app compile
Hallo you can read it here: Thread by @alexeyguzey: "1/n One of @gwern's best essays ever is a review of a book nobody has ever heard of. It's about looking into the future, […]" https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1068583101633359874.html …
Share this if you think it's interesting. 
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
