That's not evidence of anything, regards this pandemic.
If you didn't misinterpret it, then I'm informing you that Sweden is not 'doing nothing', so you've been incorrectly making calculations.
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The study lists a range of scenarios from 'nothing' to 'significant', so Sw will fall somewhere in the range, just like every country that has implemented varying levels of mitigation. The one scenario that you absolutely can not use, however, is the one you used (do nothing).
End of conversation
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Pointless question, IMO.
The IC study explicitly discussed this aspect, and said "suppression carries enormous social/eco costs, which may impact health". No perfect solution.