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aetiology's profile
Dr. Tara C. Smith
Dr. Tara C. Smith
Dr. Tara C. Smith
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@aetiology

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Dr. Tara C. SmithVerified account

@aetiology

Professor, infectious disease epidemiologist, writer, mom of 3. Antibiotic resistance, zoonotic disease, scicomm, zombies. She/her. No one's sweetie.

Kent, Ohio
taracsmith.com
Joined April 2009

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    Dr. Tara C. Smith‏Verified account @aetiology 11 May 2020

    So let's talk a bit about R0 and superspreading events, because I guess we're returning to February. Remember that R0 is not an intrinsic factor of the virus--it's dependent on host behavior, population immune status, and other factors. /1

    5:32 PM - 11 May 2020
    • 370 Retweets
    • 1,186 Likes
    • Chelsea Arch-Physicist 😷 #MildZeroCovid chanze ⚔️ Jess ⚔️ Yves Dawtur Barrett Ausman Wv Nurse Phil Caitlin Baumhart, MPH, MPS (she/her)
    26 replies 370 retweets 1,186 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Dr. Tara C. Smith‏Verified account @aetiology 11 May 2020

        This is why distancing & hygiene have reduced spread in some areas to ~ or below 1, meaning it's either steadily spreading in the population but not yet decreasing, or slowing a bit in some areas where it's hovering less than 1. This is what we want--decreased transmission. /2

        6 replies 26 retweets 200 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Dr. Tara C. Smith‏Verified account @aetiology 11 May 2020

        Dr. Tara C. Smith Retweeted Dr. Maimuna Majumder

        But keep in mind R0 is an average over the population. Some people may be responsible for a disproportionate amount of spread, and some may never spread it at all. https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1220802808976486406 … /3

        Dr. Tara C. Smith added,

        Dr. Maimuna MajumderVerified account @maiamajumder
        Friendly reminder about #nCoV2019 transmissibility estimates from the past day: The basic reproduction number (R_0) is an *average*. An R_0 of 2 doesn't necessarily mean that every case will infect 2 other people. In fact, here are 3 (non-exhaustive) scenarios in which R_0 = 2. pic.twitter.com/EqaXy1puyW
        5 replies 31 retweets 207 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Dr. Tara C. Smith‏Verified account @aetiology 11 May 2020

        Remember the aspects of transmission that make up R0: how long a person is infectious (longer = more people they will transmit the virus to, all other things being equal); # of contacts per unit time (more = more potential for spread)... /4

        1 reply 17 retweets 121 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Dr. Tara C. Smith‏Verified account @aetiology 11 May 2020

        ...and mode of spread. For most people for example, they'll spread a respiratory infection to more people than an infection that's spread by sexual activity. You're probably in close contact with plenty of people you're not having sex with (no judgement though). /5

        2 replies 16 retweets 167 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Dr. Tara C. Smith‏Verified account @aetiology 11 May 2020

        Sometimes this constellation of aspects of transmission can lead to superspreading events. Maybe a person is coinfected with another respiratory virus (virus 2) that means they spread virus 1 more efficiently than others do lacking virus 2. /6

        2 replies 14 retweets 110 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Dr. Tara C. Smith‏Verified account @aetiology 11 May 2020

        Maybe they simply have way more contacts while they are infectious than the average person: they work @ a place where they're in close contact with lots of people, or they're socially gregarious, or they just wander around a city all day shopping & on public transportation. /7

        1 reply 18 retweets 120 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Dr. Tara C. Smith‏Verified account @aetiology 11 May 2020

        Dr. Tara C. Smith Retweeted Dr. Maimuna Majumder

        But remember, R0 is still calculated as an average over the population. So while some people may transmit to a lot of people, others may not transmit it all, so again, heterogeneity. We don't say R0 is large (or small) due to a single spreading event. /finhttps://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1220802808976486406 …

        Dr. Tara C. Smith added,

        Dr. Maimuna MajumderVerified account @maiamajumder
        Friendly reminder about #nCoV2019 transmissibility estimates from the past day: The basic reproduction number (R_0) is an *average*. An R_0 of 2 doesn't necessarily mean that every case will infect 2 other people. In fact, here are 3 (non-exhaustive) scenarios in which R_0 = 2. pic.twitter.com/EqaXy1puyW
        10 replies 30 retweets 146 likes
        Show this thread
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2.  🔬 ))ay(  🚴‍‏ @jjcouey 11 May 2020
        Replying to @aetiology

        This thread means next to nothing in light of the fact that in Jan-Feb, R0 numbers between 4-6 were dramatically tossed about ensure support for nationwide lock-downs. The number was not tossed around with the caveat that if we stayed home, we could reduce it. Bad, shady stuff.

        17 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. L_ N___‏ @sqL_handLe 11 May 2020
        Replying to @jjcouey

        did you completely miss what “slowing the spread” and “bending the curve” were about? it was all about reducing infection opportunity.

        0 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. LPSurge‏ @LissaPSurge 11 May 2020
        Replying to @aetiology

        @threadreaderapp, unroll please.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 11 May 2020
        Replying to @LissaPSurge

        Hola, you can read it here: @aetiology: So let's talk a bit about R0 and superspreading events, because I guess we're returning to February.… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1260004940728188928.html … See you soon. 🤖

        0 replies 8 retweets 10 likes
      4. End of conversation

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