> You can think of α-1 as the number of successes and β-1 as the number of failures.... If you think the probability of success is very high, let’s say 90%, set 90 for α and 10 for β. Given the -1 in the first sentence, why wouldn't P(success)=90% correspond to α=89 and β=9?
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Hey Josh, thanks for the comment. To be thorough, alpha should be 91, beta should be 11. 90/10 was just for an illustration. :) Either way alpha 89/90/91 beta 9/10/11 won't matter too much for modeling.
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> P(X>0.5) = 1- CDF(0.5) = 0.01953 I found this hard to follow, because the article had not yet explained the Beta CDF at this point.
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ok! Thanks for the feedback!
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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