Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

Mathematician/epidemiologist at . fellow and . New book The Rules of Contagion out 13th Feb:

Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2012.

Tweetovi

Blokirali ste korisnika/cu @AdamJKucharski

Jeste li sigurni da želite vidjeti te tweetove? Time nećete deblokirati korisnika/cu @AdamJKucharski

  1. prije 8 sati

    The case fatality rate for is now being widely quoted as 2%. Reminder that this is based on an erroneous calculation that doesn't account for delay between onset of symptoms and death, or under-reporting. See below thread for more on what the actual value may be:

    Poništi
  2. prije 8 sati
    Poništi
  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 21 sat

    Some news from the cluster of cases in the south of Germany: Two laboratories have been independently monitoring virus shedding by the patients being treated at a Munich clinic.

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    Calling all scientists with relevant domain experience. There are 313 results on for "coronavirus" right now. Almost none of them have attached reviews. Let's fix that by Monday morning. Who's with me?

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  5. 4. velj
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  6. 4. velj

    This is obviously very early analysis (hence the large uncertainty in the estimate), but a clearer picture of should emerge in the coming days.

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  7. 4. velj

    Additional caveat: only confirmed international cases with a known onset date were analysed (88/153) – if all confirmed cases could be included, it would reduce the case fatality estimate (probably by around a half).

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  8. 4. velj

    Preliminary analysis by of international data suggests 4% (95% CI: 0.2–18%) of confirmed cases resulted in death. (Note: only some infections are confirmed, so proportion of infections that result in death could be much lower)

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  9. 4. velj

    "It's been humbling to see scientists from all over the world break down traditional barriers to rapid scientific progress."

    Poništi
  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj
    Poništi
  11. 3. velj

    If people are spreading misinformation about that needs debunking, please screen grab the post rather than quote retweet it (which will only amplify their profile further)

    Poništi
  12. 3. velj
    Poništi
  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    We're hosting a special lecture today at 5.15 pm. From modelling the spread of the outbreak to supporting Africa's response planning, learn more about our latest research. All welcome! Can't make it? Tune into our live stream 👉

    Poništi
  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    Our analysis of early dynamics is now up as a pre-print. We combined data on cases within Wuhan and exported internationally to estimate transmission patterns and potential implications for outbreaks elsewhere.

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  15. 3. velj

    We undoubtedly need to find better ways to use diverse data source to identify outbreaks promptly. But we also need to be sceptical of post-hoc claims about performance.

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  16. 3. velj

    Apparently AI managed to flag as early as 31st December. Maybe it managed to find a signal in all the prominent news reports describing the outbreak...

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj
    Poništi
  18. 3. velj

    Some further reading if you want more technical details: - Landmark paper on superspreading estimation and modelling by et al - Analysis of individual-level variation for MERS-CoV with

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  19. 3. velj

    There's been a lot of interest in this aspect of our analysis, so we built an online tool to allow people to explore different assumptions/scenarios further

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  20. 3. velj

    Code and data openly available here:

    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi

Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.

Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.

    Možda bi vam se svidjelo i ovo:

    ·