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The case fatality rate for
#2019nCoV is now being widely quoted as 2%. Reminder that this is based on an erroneous calculation that doesn't account for delay between onset of symptoms and death, or under-reporting. See below thread for more on what the actual value may be:https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1224624784459255808 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Great primer by
@nicgeard@jmcvernon et al on the uses of modelling during the early stages of#2019nCoVhttps://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/what-maths-can-tell-us-about-the-spread-of-the-new-coronavirus …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
Some news from the cluster of
#2019nCoV cases in the south of Germany: Two laboratories have been independently monitoring virus shedding by the patients being treated at a Munich clinic.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
Calling all scientists with relevant domain experience. There are 313 results on
@biorxivpreprint for "coronavirus" right now. Almost none of them have attached reviews. Let's fix that by Monday morning. Who's with me?#CommunityReview#CoronavirusOutbreakpic.twitter.com/EOd2IPS7r2
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See also this thread:https://twitter.com/SRileyIDD/status/1220464674476625921?s=20 …
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This is obviously very early analysis (hence the large uncertainty in the estimate), but a clearer picture of should emerge in the coming days.
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Additional caveat: only confirmed international cases with a known onset date were analysed (88/153) – if all confirmed cases could be included, it would reduce the case fatality estimate (probably by around a half).
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Preliminary analysis by
@C_Althaus of international#2019nCoV data suggests 4% (95% CI: 0.2–18%) of confirmed cases resulted in death. (Note: only some infections are confirmed, so proportion of infections that result in death could be much lower)https://github.com/calthaus/ncov-cfr …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
"It's been humbling to see scientists from all over the world break down traditional barriers to rapid scientific progress." https://bedford.io/blog/genomic-epi-for-ncov-response/ …
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
Also about anything else.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1224443274854666241 …
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If people are spreading misinformation about
#2019nCoV that needs debunking, please screen grab the post rather than quote retweet it (which will only amplify their profile further)Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
With episode 1 featuring
@cmmid_lshtm’s very own@rozeggo....https://twitter.com/ri_science/status/1224302313378123776 …
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
We're hosting a special
#coronavirus lecture today at 5.15 pm. From modelling the spread of the outbreak to supporting Africa's response planning, learn more about our latest research. All welcome! Can't make it? Tune into our live stream
http://bit.ly/2S6tFIX #nCoV2019pic.twitter.com/PRpHqdvdIg
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
Our analysis of early
#2019nCoV dynamics is now up as a pre-print. We combined data on cases within Wuhan and exported internationally to estimate transmission patterns and potential implications for outbreaks elsewhere. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019901v1 …pic.twitter.com/w6i3FWraeg
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We undoubtedly need to find better ways to use diverse data source to identify outbreaks promptly. But we also need to be sceptical of post-hoc claims about performance.
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Apparently AI managed to flag
#2019nCoV as early as 31st December. Maybe it managed to find a signal in all the prominent news reports describing the outbreak... https://www.wired.com/story/ai-epidemiologist-wuhan-public-health-warnings/ …pic.twitter.com/AjyhZNzdDg
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
New study on
#cervicalCancer from@cmmid_lshtm Mark Jit & colleagueshttps://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1223031450116804609 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Some further reading if you want more technical details: - Landmark paper on superspreading estimation and modelling by
@jlloydsmith et al http://nature.berkeley.edu/getzlab/Preprints/LloydSmith_Nature_Total.pdf … - Analysis of individual-level variation for MERS-CoV with@C_Althaus https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21167 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
There's been a lot of interest in this aspect of our analysis, so we built an online tool to allow people to explore different assumptions/scenarios further https://cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/new_outbreak_probability/ … https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1223270381097758720 …pic.twitter.com/FpbUelilGb
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