What’s one belief you currently hold strongly that you think might be proven wrong in the next decade?
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My population projections for both the US and Europe are probably overly pessimistic.
@RAVerBruggen explains how the current fertility trends might reverse themselves, at least in the U.S.https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-evolution-undo-the-demographic-transition …5 replies 8 retweets 32 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @_TamaraWinter @RAVerBruggen
Do you know Eric Kaufmann's (
@epkaufm) work that makes parellel claims in relation to religious/cultural demography?1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes -
Replying to @JSMilbank @epkaufm
I really enjoy his work, but I’m not familiar with this specific set of claims. Where should I start? Thanks in advance!
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Replying to @_TamaraWinter @epkaufm
Well he can explain it better but in 'Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?' he suggests that religious groups that combine a high birthrate and a high retention rate have a winning demographic strategy that means they will become more dominant over the long term.
3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
It sounds a lot like Rodney Stark's thesis on how early Christianity ended up dominating due to higher fertility
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