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aaronecarroll's profile
Aaron E. Carroll
Aaron E. Carroll
Aaron E. Carroll
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@aaronecarroll

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Aaron E. CarrollVerified account

@aaronecarroll

@IndianaUniv Chief Health Officer/HSR Researcher/Author/Pediatrician. I make videos @HCTriage & write for @NYTOpinion. Tweets represent me and me alone.

Indianapolis, IN
theincidentaleconomist.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

      Once in a while, I get to talk about my own back yard. Indiana just conducted the first statewide random sample study to determine the true prevalence of COVID-19. The results may surprise you. Too Many States Are Flying Blind Into Reopening. Not Indiana.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/indiana-reopening-coronavirus-testing.html …

      23 replies 320 retweets 582 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

      First of all - THIS IS WHAT GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE DOING! Good on the @GovHolcomb. Good on @StateHealthIN. Good on spending the money and mobilizing the resources to do this not once, but again and again in the next few months. THIS IS GOOD.

      3 replies 23 retweets 160 likes
      Show this thread
      Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

      Now to results! How many are currently infected? 1.7% How many more have antibodies? 1.1% Total prevalence in Indiana? 2.8% Anyone hoping that great numbers of Americans have been infected, but with no symptoms or very mild illness is going to be disappointed.

      1:28 PM - 13 May 2020
      • 125 Retweets
      • 265 Likes
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      10 replies 125 retweets 265 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

          On the other hand, social distancing worked. The hospitals, while strained at times, were never overwhelmed. The state was able to keep the rate of infection much lower than others.

          2 replies 23 retweets 116 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

          This means, however, that Indiana is currently missing 10 out of every 11 cases. We're not testing enough. More calculations possible with a denominator. The infection fatality rate is 0.58% This is worse than the flu. What percent were totally asymptomatic? About 45%

          9 replies 48 retweets 151 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

          Three lessons. 1. States that haven’t seen their health care systems crushed have been spared because they have been relatively free of disease. New York likely saw far more people exposed and infected than the rest of the country.

          1 reply 30 retweets 121 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

          2. Much of the country still needs to be very careful. They need to continue to manage this pandemic well. Indiana is not out of the woods; it has barely entered, even while the state has begun easing restrictions.

          2 replies 25 retweets 113 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

          3. State governments may need to do the heavy lifting. Thus far, the federal response has been sorely lacking. Too many states are flying blind, moving ahead without understanding their risk. There’s no magic to this. All states could do it if they just committed to it.

          4 replies 34 retweets 129 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Aaron E. Carroll‏Verified account @aaronecarroll 13 May 2020

          Again, they will repeat all of this in early June. More data to come. Go read.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/indiana-reopening-coronavirus-testing.html …

          9 replies 27 retweets 97 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation
        1. Aaron Berger‏ @berge314 13 May 2020
          Replying to @aaronecarroll @GovHolcomb @StateHealthIN

          Aaron Berger Retweeted Miguel Hernán

          Similar overall prevalence in Spain, with seroprevalence of just 11% in its hardest-hit region.https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1260625031119409156 …

          Aaron Berger added,

          Miguel HernánVerified account @_MiguelHernan
          BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary results of Spain's seroprevalence study #ENECOVID. >60,000 participants Antibodies for #SARSCoV2: 5% of Spanish population 11% in region with highest incidence (Madrid) So far from herd immunity in country with 2nd largest number of cases after U.S. https://twitter.com/desdelamoncloa/status/1260612372877754368 …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
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        1. Some Guy‏ @someguymg 13 May 2020
          Replying to @aaronecarroll @JeremyKonyndyk and

          Thanks for this. Is there a paper out with more info? With such low prevalence the CIs can be disproportionately impactful on IFR calcs and would be curious to dig in more.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Denken, dann tweeten‏ @erstmal_denken 13 May 2020
          Replying to @aaronecarroll @GovHolcomb @StateHealthIN

          Denken, dann tweeten Retweeted Miguel Hernán

          Thanks! Just to connect related information: a new study from Spain got 5% with antibodies nationwide (10% in Madrid) IFR would be 1.1 or 1.2% (!) Maybe even higher, as excess mortality suggests there might be more deaths. https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1260625031119409156 … https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/serviciosdeprensa/notasprensa/sanidad14/Documents/2020/130520-ENE-COVID_Informe1.pdf …

          Denken, dann tweeten added,

          Miguel HernánVerified account @_MiguelHernan
          BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary results of Spain's seroprevalence study #ENECOVID. >60,000 participants Antibodies for #SARSCoV2: 5% of Spanish population 11% in region with highest incidence (Madrid) So far from herd immunity in country with 2nd largest number of cases after U.S. https://twitter.com/desdelamoncloa/status/1260612372877754368 …
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Denken, dann tweeten‏ @erstmal_denken 13 May 2020
          Replying to @erstmal_denken @aaronecarroll and

          Ouch, I wasn't the first to mention this, sorry.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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