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a_yawning_cat's profile
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@a_yawning_cat

stray thoughts, loosely held. rat jaeger.

California, USA
aycat.substack.com
Joined December 2018

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     🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

    interesting thread i wanted to know more about so i picked these 8 tweets from this thread to seed gpt-3 with https://twitter.com/coloradotravis/status/1407488962847936513 …pic.twitter.com/NvrR9LucAs

    6:58 PM - 22 Jun 2021
    • 4 Likes
    • ₿ondi.hodl.SOV ☣️🐝 💥👃💥 wobblewoof ᴄʏʙᴇʀɴᴇᴛɪᴄ 💔 sᴜʀᴠᴇɪʟʟᴀɴᴛ Shubh Cheema
    1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      1. New conversation
      2.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        Results: > So what do we do about it? Well, you could try to reinflate the economy and try to get back to where you were before. But that would require a bunch of new liquidity into the system, which might be impossible.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      3.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > You could also say "well if we can't force-prune then maybe we can figure how to best allow for organic liquidity." And if so, that would mean expanding the maturities on some securities in order to make more room for future savings without getting taxed too much in present day

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      4.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > But nobody wants higher rates (for all those reasons), therefore this is ultimately an untenable strategy. Which means... uh oh... I think we might be in trouble here guys! We've run outta ideas! *sad trombone*

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      5.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > he Fed is out of ideas. So they've resorted to force-pruning, which means we're gonna have a world of hurt on our hands when we get there because the economy has been disincentivized from saving.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      6.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > And now you know why it's so important to have a healthy savings rate - and also why people who are planning for retirement should be cycling their money into investments that aren't too sensitive to interest rates, like real estate and gold.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      7.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > Gold is a better store of value than money in dollars, because it's real. And so is the cash flow from rental properties. The Fed has to prune them but they won't be able to force-liquidate them!

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      8.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > And now maybe you also see why "asset bubbles" are the best thing happening to us. Asset prices are a very real signal that we're doing something wrong with our economy and if they deflate, it's really cause for concern!

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      9.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > Maybe you also understand how bonds can be bad for business during times of recession - because if rates fall when you're trying to run a company, the Fed is implicitly telling you not to save and instead go spend your money.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      10.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > The Fed is tampering with market signals on purpose in order to force-mature debt by running around swinging axes at all the fat parts of the curve. (We could have organically liquidated them but... uh.. yeah... ) Which means we get stuck in recessions.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      11.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > The Fed is trying to destroy the economy by destroying savers. (Which it can't do directly, hence why they're using force.) Once upon a time people had enough sense to save money and that's how we got through recessions!

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      12.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > And now they've decided enough is enough. Because who cares if the country goes broke? The government can just make more money anyway, right? So we shouldn't worry about saving any of it at all!

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      13.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > The Fed is creating a dystopia. It's like mass suicide! And it's being done at the expense of savers, who are getting hammered by negative interest rates and being disincentivized from saving. Because they want to force-mature bonds without organically doing so!

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      14.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > So yeah... if you're sitting on cash, it might be wise to not be too hasty in getting rid of it. Especially if you can put your money to work in places where the Fed isn't pruning (like stocks). Or gold. Or land.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      15.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > But be careful! Don't fall for the bullshit narrative that deflation is bad, because it's not. Deflation is good. It forces us to reallocate resources in a way that we'd have never been able to before this whole recession bubble thing got started.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      16.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        > And you know what? Maybe I'm wrong about all of this and the economy will just keep growing forever (despite everything). But if so then why do people like Buffett continue to push for higher savings rates? Why would they do that if growth was just gonna keep on trucking? 🤔

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      17.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jun 22

        pic.twitter.com/uVfskN9ds1

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      18. End of conversation

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