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so if everyone in the carnival is using their fun coupons to buy food and you need food, you HAVE to sell some bitcoin for coupons but bc u know the coupons r just printed, u know that your btc purchasing power is actually growing over time as coupons flood the carnival

however everyone (smart) KNOWS this and (tries to) keeps their assets mostly in things that grow in value as "capital" and only converts to fiat to buy from the carnival this means that the assets can actually be overpriced since no one wants the coupons

now the carnival overall has a "vibe". either everyone is happily building new attractions and participating in activities, OR they are rushing out of it bc a roller coaster killed some people and a virus is spreading

this means that the flow of wealth has directional bias based on carnival sentiment. it tends to be either flowing into the coupons(something inflationary) or flowing into capital(something deflationary)

this allows traders who can predict sentiment to front-run. like getting in early on taylor swift concert tickets and selling them to the highest bidder on the day of the concert they are rewarded for providing an otherwise nonexistent opportunityhttps://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1341269410686726144 …

so while long term you can HODL a deflationary asset and weather the volatility, if you want "alpha" you have to do some sort of trading. you have to make predictions about the futures and then RISK something u gotta be a hipster and get in on the cool before it becomes a thing

however, when being a hipster is EASILY profitable and everyone makes money, then fake hipsters who just follow the trend and aren't actually making future-cool predictions flood the field these fake hipsters make accurate predictions only bc the crowd momentum is so clear

however b/c they are just regurgitating what's hip, once the fashions change they no longer know what's cool. they lose their shirts b/c they thought they were making accurate predictions but they were just fooling themselves