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however, when being a hipster is EASILY profitable and everyone makes money, then fake hipsters who just follow the trend and aren't actually making future-cool predictions flood the field these fake hipsters make accurate predictions only bc the crowd momentum is so clear
however b/c they are just regurgitating what's hip, once the fashions change they no longer know what's cool. they lose their shirts b/c they thought they were making accurate predictions but they were just fooling themselves
this can lead to a sentiment like "all hipsters are FAKE!" and swear off all capital assets and hoard only the carnival coupons the "real" hipsters however trade to extract some alpha but then RETURN to hodling capital assets at fair prices
this understanding of the basic mechanism of how carnival coupons work is the real secret to compounding wealth they don't even need to be that hip of a hipster. they just need to know when to get out and hold. they don't need to LEAD the mob, they just need to not get stampeded
this is also y many entry folks do WORSE than random and can't profit off themselves being consistently wrong by doing the "opposite of what i'd normally do" the way they think IS groupthink so they CAN'T do not-groupthinkhttps://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1388539447105388544 …
they can't say "that's good" without looking to the crowd to see if its an acceptable opinion this is IDENTITY oriented behavior so it is literally impossible for them to do the opposite of the crowd any time they try to do so they suddenly feel paralyzing feel, anxiety, etc
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