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long term, both fiat and gold degrades in terms of purchasing power. they slowly melt, like antarctica. because gold inflates slower than fiat it is like food stored in the freezer vs the refrigerator bitcoin however is like freezing to absolute zero. no degradation whatsoever
so if u think in bitcoin, then bitcoin is neither inflationary nor deflationary. 1 btc is always equal to exactly 1 btc by definition however it becomes inflationary/deflationary relative to what you want on the open market & unless u can eat bitcoin, it's intrinsically useless
so if everyone in the carnival is using their fun coupons to buy food and you need food, you HAVE to sell some bitcoin for coupons but bc u know the coupons r just printed, u know that your btc purchasing power is actually growing over time as coupons flood the carnival
however everyone (smart) KNOWS this and (tries to) keeps their assets mostly in things that grow in value as "capital" and only converts to fiat to buy from the carnival this means that the assets can actually be overpriced since no one wants the coupons
now the carnival overall has a "vibe". either everyone is happily building new attractions and participating in activities, OR they are rushing out of it bc a roller coaster killed some people and a virus is spreading
this means that the flow of wealth has directional bias based on carnival sentiment. it tends to be either flowing into the coupons(something inflationary) or flowing into capital(something deflationary)
this allows traders who can predict sentiment to front-run. like getting in early on taylor swift concert tickets and selling them to the highest bidder on the day of the concert they are rewarded for providing an otherwise nonexistent opportunityhttps://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1341269410686726144 …
so while long term you can HODL a deflationary asset and weather the volatility, if you want "alpha" you have to do some sort of trading. you have to make predictions about the futures and then RISK something u gotta be a hipster and get in on the cool before it becomes a thing
however, when being a hipster is EASILY profitable and everyone makes money, then fake hipsters who just follow the trend and aren't actually making future-cool predictions flood the field these fake hipsters make accurate predictions only bc the crowd momentum is so clear
however b/c they are just regurgitating what's hip, once the fashions change they no longer know what's cool. they lose their shirts b/c they thought they were making accurate predictions but they were just fooling themselves
this can lead to a sentiment like "all hipsters are FAKE!" and swear off all capital assets and hoard only the carnival coupons the "real" hipsters however trade to extract some alpha but then RETURN to hodling capital assets at fair prices
this understanding of the basic mechanism of how carnival coupons work is the real secret to compounding wealth they don't even need to be that hip of a hipster. they just need to know when to get out and hold. they don't need to LEAD the mob, they just need to not get stampeded
this is also y many entry folks do WORSE than random and can't profit off themselves being consistently wrong by doing the "opposite of what i'd normally do" the way they think IS groupthink so they CAN'T do not-groupthinkhttps://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1388539447105388544 …
they can't say "that's good" without looking to the crowd to see if its an acceptable opinion this is IDENTITY oriented behavior so it is literally impossible for them to do the opposite of the crowd any time they try to do so they suddenly feel paralyzing feel, anxiety, etc
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