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if u r annoyed at "bayesian thinking" signaling and suspect that it's just big-brain-ai-adjacent posturing then here is a simplistic breakdown:

bayesian reasoning is basically about taking a guess, and then updating that guess it deals with 2 hooman fallibilities: 1/ the lack of courage to guess 2/ the lack of courage to update that guess

in contrast, you have something like the feynman technique where you "think very hard. write down the answer" this works, but requires a clear problem, clear data, and sufficient mental horsepower

the reason taking a guess is difficult is bc being wrong hurts e.g. given a question "can u do A" the response is sth like "i'm 90% sure u mean B so i am not the right contact but in the 10% case then blah blah blah"

this confuses everyone because the 10% case has to be hedged with excessive noise and explanation vs taking a guess and rounding 90% to 100% and replying with "not me, go talk to team B" and dealing w/ the 10% if it comes up

thus bayesian thinking is not about thinking but about DOING and acting with incomplete information and being able to adapt to new information instead of waiting for the data, you carpe diem INTO it