if u r annoyed at "bayesian thinking" signaling and suspect that it's just big-brain-ai-adjacent posturing then here is a simplistic breakdown:
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bayesian reasoning is basically about taking a guess, and then updating that guess it deals with 2 hooman fallibilities: 1/ the lack of courage to guess 2/ the lack of courage to update that guess
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in contrast, you have something like the feynman technique where you "think very hard. write down the answer" this works, but requires a clear problem, clear data, and sufficient mental horsepower
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the reason taking a guess is difficult is bc being wrong hurts e.g. given a question "can u do A" the response is sth like "i'm 90% sure u mean B so i am not the right contact but in the 10% case then blah blah blah"
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this confuses everyone because the 10% case has to be hedged with excessive noise and explanation vs taking a guess and rounding 90% to 100% and replying with "not me, go talk to team B" and dealing w/ the 10% if it comes up
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thus bayesian thinking is not about thinking but about DOING and acting with incomplete information and being able to adapt to new information instead of waiting for the data, you carpe diem INTO it
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most hoomans do only one. they either use an absolute (moral) framework and cannot adapt to (moral) changes, or they are so concerned with "keeping up" that they never form an actual mental model themselves. they just regurgitate the new hotnesshttps://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1386854761756913664 …
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you have to "put yourself out there" protected with a concept of what the world is but not so armored that you can't feel reality knocking at the door. you have to be open to the scrapes and bruises that shock you awake and the fear that warns u away from the cliffs
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which is y i feel like throwing up whenever "bayesian" posturing is used to signal "trust the expert, aka ME ME ME!!!" at its heart it's about thinking for yourself based on your own reality (which is the only reality you will ever have access to)
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so "don't trust yourself, trust MY reality, trust me i use bayesian blah blah blah" is like literally the opposite of the intended philosophy
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End of conversation
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