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a_yawning_cat's profile
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@a_yawning_cat

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@a_yawning_cat

stray thoughts, loosely held. rat jaeger.

California, USA
aycat.substack.com
Joined December 2018

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    1.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat May 19

      u can have access to my personal volatility roller coaster to experiment w/ your personal psychology: …https://stock-analyzer-ibfzk28je-theory-a.vercel.app/  https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1383129373608275968 …pic.twitter.com/cRGanVsX93

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      Show this thread
    2.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat May 19

      it works better than the game in the previous thread because you can bet much faster and compress more time into experience. notice how volatile the growth and falls are even with an fully legible mathematically guaranteed 60% win rate (this is 20% kelly bet spam)pic.twitter.com/Cc7Y2K398V

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    3.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat May 19

      this is what makes investi-gambling hard. random noise, ponzi scams, and REAL edge ALL look very similar. it'll subject your heart to ups and downs you'll dream at the top and have those dreams crashing at least a few times during the ride

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    4.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat May 19

      fyi @phantom_opus, it seems like 50% spam betting asymptotically heads towards 0 given a long enough time horizon. this doesn't intuitively mesh with my previous idea that 60% is guaranteed money. but i trust the monte carlo sim more than my math skills sample 50% spam run:pic.twitter.com/tJO8UrIXMu

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    5.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat May 19

      the downside to this game is that because you can click so fast you may not fully FEEL each cut from the losses. you have to imagine each click as a day or something and imagine how you feel in the dip over a period of days/weeks/months

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    6.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat May 19

       🐈 Retweeted  🐈

      whether one is a fan of these exponential processes or not one must ACCEPT that they exist and drive almost all activity in the world the fear of having dreams shattered prevents one from ever understanding the process by which the world evolveshttps://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1393438825427324930 …

       🐈 added,

       🐈 @a_yawning_cat
      the buildup and collapse of bubbles is perhaps one of the few wisdoms that hoomans intuitively understand that Truth is never found enshrined on an altar but is left remaining amongst a pile of rubble
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    7.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat May 19

       🐈 Retweeted  🐈

      it sees the joy of dreaming at the top as naive.... and often gleefully awaits drops from the sideline. so while both types of joys are ephemeral, this latter type of joy feels "damning"https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1361072559354089473?s=20 …

       🐈 added,

       🐈 @a_yawning_cat
      pessimissm is a positive feedback loop b/c u always get in at the top, “forced” by social pressure. u only experience the crushing heartbreaks of optimism, not its long term rising tide. u ride the “i told u so” straight into hell.
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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       🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat May 19

      this is what makes the problem of Faith so difficult. you can't cut through the bullshit without also sawing off your leg

      8:32 AM - 19 May 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • ᴄʏʙᴇʀɴᴇᴛɪᴄ 💔 sᴜʀᴠᴇɪʟʟᴀɴᴛ Phantom
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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