this is actually pretty fun to play and observe your mental reactions to winning/losinghttps://gamesfortraders.com/coin-challenge/
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Still, my method really does intuitively seem way faster than your Kelly attempt. Is there anything to it, or just blind luck/random fluctuations? (I do trust maths for this kind of thing, but trusting a specific claim means trusting their assumptions match your situation ofc)
i don't know the math behind this but b/c of the cap it says a 12% bet actually has a higher probability of reaching the max: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion#cite_ref-10:~:text=In%20this%20particular%20game%2C%20because%20of,and%20an%20average%20payout%20of%20%24242.03 … so it doesn't actually maximize time like i thought but probability within X flips
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since this is a rigged game so long as you don't reach zero, given infinite time you'll have infinite money. perhaps 50% is faster but has a lower probability of hitting the max within 300 flips or something.
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So it looks like Kelly is right in the long run for this setup: I think it must be that betting ~50% has higher volatility so I hit the 10x by chance quite quickly, but would quickly drop again. So if the target was higher, eg to 100x your money, Kelly would probably win.
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