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a_yawning_cat's profile
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@a_yawning_cat

stray thoughts, loosely held. rat jaeger.

California, USA
aycat.substack.com
Joined December 2018

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    1.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Mar 9

      indexing to the sp500 is just one index out of many. what makes it special and the "default" is because size makes it a pillar of the economic system. it also intrinsically captures the philosophy of lettings your winners run vs rebalancing out of them once they "grow up".

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    2.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Mar 9

      however, marketsize does not actually map to strength of the pillar. the valuation of a company is not the current price times the number of shares but more like the area-under-curve of an exponential line.

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    3.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Mar 9

       🐈 Retweeted  🐈

      this is both because the valuation of a company rises dramatically the more hopes are projected into the futurehttps://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1367863027303731205?s=20 …

       🐈 added,

       🐈 @a_yawning_cat
      the stock market is like the ego of an economy while the economy is the "true self" as a system grows, its value is the combination of both present value and expected future value. the ego is the inflated sense of self b/c it's taking future value & applying it to the present pic.twitter.com/JnValdfkad
      Show this thread
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    4.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Mar 9

       🐈 Retweeted  🐈

      and also because as you sell the price goes down. it is basically impossible to fully liquidate a company while maintaining its value based on current-price X # of shares. as soon rapid liquidation starts, everything after today no longer matters.https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1367863043472822272?s=20 …

       🐈 added,

       🐈 @a_yawning_cat
      it's possible to combine both too. tesla's crazy valuation is a combination of both seeing far into the future as well as making real innovative progress. pic.twitter.com/GZhV3nEmq6
      Show this thread
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    5.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Mar 9

      because hope can exponentially inflate the perceived value of a company to incredible highs, marketcap can end up overweighing allocation to hope.

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    6.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Mar 9

      a better strategy imo is to allocate and weight based on its REAL strength as a pillar of society/economic-system. this is different than value investing which mostly measures how much hope is being poured into a company.

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       🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Mar 9

      both momentum and value investing are both extreme stances just like political views. value investing is correct. you cannot build a future out of wishful thinking. momentum/trend-following is correct. hope is paradoxically what the future is made out of.

      9:54 AM - 9 Mar 2021
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