to get a similar over-valuation with a company that can't project itself as far into the future requires a ridiculous growth rate only possible through non-organic growth like price squeezes.pic.twitter.com/jDYW1hkPdO
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when seas are disastrous what you want are things that have a strong expected future. iphones may die but corn will be eaten. governments may fall but gold will always be shiny.
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this last technique is like abandoning ship for the lifeboats. the point isn't to grow but to survive, 0% at best. trying to grow in a disaster is like saying "if a nuclear war happens along with an alien invasion and a giant meteor, what stock do i buy to be rich?"
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just like managing ego, the key is simple but constant observation of how much of present perceived value is present vs expected future. and just like the rustling leaves announce the presence of wind, Contact With Reality is the only way to know this.
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a mark of maturity is an active sense of declining abilities and the specter of looming death/impotence. a limited future horizon prevents ridiculous valuations like "i just graduated college and learned some programming, i know how to fix the company and also the world."
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in the vein of "everything is borrowed from God" you don't actually "own" this ship. the ship is a giant shared market and you are just laying claim to different sections of it. e.g. buying lifeboat passes cheap & selling high vs literally hoarding lifeboats for yourself
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this is mostly speculation rather than building actual capital. any 'real' capital you buy is always sold by someone who doesn't want it. either it's sold in desperation, the seller really needs the liquidity, or is stupid. otherwise you can't get a good deal.
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