this is a kind of inequality. when ppl have access to different growth rates, the gap becomes bigger and bigger over time.pic.twitter.com/xIQyNt9BSy
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in a K shaped recovery this is even worse. instead of getting a worse deal of 10% you get 0% or even NEGATIVE compounding as you take on debt to survive.
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this is when high volatility but low expected return plays start to become rational.https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1363742123443380225?s=20 …
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"respect for elders" is a heuristic that respects the time advantage. the old master isn't challenged because anything that DOES "win" is considered a high volatility "hack" that kills the long term compounding.https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1366533837010821120 …
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the thing is systems don't compound forever. they eventually die. the old master IS eventually senile and self-contradictory and probably wrong about many things. especially with regards to new possibility in the world.
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however, aside from lottery-ticket low-expected-return hacks there are also hacks that work by reducing the time horizon. e.g. something that returns 50% year over year for 5 years but then -10% for 99 years.
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these strategies are useful for mimetic envious hoomans who don't maintain friendships or relationships for time horizons longer than 5 years. as long as you are the sexy sexy winner alpha amongst w/e group of friends you're in at the time. who cares.https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1362677135291207680 …
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financial products is a good example here because everything is so measurable but these effects apply to almost anything. (natural growth IS exponential growth and is well... natural....)
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something fun to think about is what kind of high-volatility low-expected-return strategies exist in domains like: personal growth, knowledge systems, networking, relationships, etc....
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these strategies aren't necessarily bad btw. if they are exactly like lotteries with a clearly calculated expected return then they are. many can have unknown unknowns that are infinitely positive.
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it's just difficult to tell....it's up to "God"https://www.thoughtco.com/chinese-proverbs-sai-weng-lost-his-horse-2278437 …
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