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"It's hard for me to accept that life is like dancing, where it's just as imprtnt to be skilled and show no self-consciousness. Supreme self-confidence is attractive in almost every dimension: punditry, sex, sales, just not investing. It's surprising there aren't more bubbles."
4/ Jordan Peterson on business theory " I heard him give a talk in which he mentioned initially that he was interested in economics, but was put off by the undefended assumption that people want to maximize their wealth" http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/jordan-petersons-business-cycle-theory.html …
"Human life is a narrative quest, focused on a story we find useful and true, an arc that leads to something profoundly good and beautiful. We attend to things we believe will lead us to this objective, and thus, all of our tactics, strategies, are tied in a speculative endeavor"
"It is difficult for people to improvise solutions to their problems, as failure cascades through a complex system. In such a scenario, the first response is to freeze, as rats will freeze initially when moved to a new cage, because all their current environment is unmapped"
"Using the Peterson theory, when something sufficiently anomalous happens, investors see chaos because it portends a major epistemic flaw in their maps. Thus, it is best to wait and see where their maps are wrong before investing more."
"They saw chaos and turtled in, froze like rats in a new cage, and investment declined across the board, which is the essence of a recession. When bad information arises, this causes all investors to put less weight on their Bayesian prior about the future"
Summary: keep your eyes open and your maps updated. allocate buffer for unavoidable catastrophic events where you have to sit there like an idiot while you remake a meaningful reality for yourself.
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