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"I actually agree with a lot of Taleb, such as the intractability of risk because it is endogenous, and he's somewhat of a libertarian as I am, but he says so many inconsistent things it doesn't mean anything (when he's right it's probably a good example of the Gettier problem)."

argument here is that you can never know when you are right or you are wrong. (e.g. chinese horse story) arrogance shouldn't be built on statements that can always be interpreted as 'right'.

"Taleb himself was in there angrily responding at length to negative reviews, and his cult-like fans piled on. From a guy who writes in Antifragile that criticism should be welcomed, his response to criticism is consistently hysterical."

"Then, note that his big idea on mental illnesses is that people should not over-diagnose or overtreat them. True enough, given the meaning of the prefix "over", but if that's his point it's tautological."

the lottery ticket analogy is strawman since it has expected return. personal summary: taleb is arguing for less reliance on risk-management models b/c they don't account for God falkenstein is saying that these models are all we have & are better than prayer

black swan review: http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/review-of-talebs-black-swan.html …