this sounds fun: "Taleb is one of many best-selling authors I don't enjoy, but as he is prolix, pretentious, petulant and clueless, I enjoy commenting on his latest blather" http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/taleb-mishandles-fragility.html …
the lottery ticket analogy is strawman since it has expected return. personal summary: taleb is arguing for less reliance on risk-management models b/c they don't account for God falkenstein is saying that these models are all we have & are better than prayer
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black swan review: http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/review-of-talebs-black-swan.html …
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" You can't profit from the idea that market returns have fat tails because that's priced into the market via the volatility smile, and this volatility smile shows up in 'disaster' insurance of all types: People pay a lot to sleep easy."pic.twitter.com/Mq66d5fvza
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"Further, we should ‘go long’ on these unanticipated events by engaging in quirky activities on the off-chance that we randomly find something, or someone, really valuable."pic.twitter.com/qVMNX3IGL3
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general thought here is that there's a kind of virtue to opening say... a persian restaurant in a neighborhood. it's a risky exploration of ppl's willingness to try new things. win or lose at least you 'did something'
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taleb's strategy overall isn't very 'good' from a returns perspective. but it is more 'virtuous' b/c it puts "your money where your mouth is" vs extracting value like a vampire and being immortal to blow-ups
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interesting to note that these 2 are both christians. imo the main conflict is between the stance one should have towards risk. e.g. strategist vs warrior.
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