this 'naked call' truly allows me to make money out of thin air as i don't even have to own potatoes. it's risky though b/c if suddenly potatoes skyrocket in price, my loss is potentially unbounded vs if i owned the potatoes all they could do is take my potatoes
the reasons are many. one is that the real world is messy and 3-body-problem-like with internally emergent black swan behaviors as well as externally imposed ones. another is that when projecting too far into the future it's hard to feel responsibility or connection w the thing
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government projects tend to lack quality and efficiency b/c they both tend to be larger scale and don't create a connection between the creator and the creation. Big Boy Projects where the Big Boy pretends to be God tend to be plagued by Plagues.
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those who can buck this trend are revered as heroes or miniature gods. it's like they can see into the future with a God's Eye. they are hailed as prophets who will lead us into the future.
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(though imo in order to avoid false idols it's good to apply some anthropic reasoning. at any given moment there will be ppl going stubbornly and willfully in every direction. there's always going to be someone who is aligned very well with where the world is going.)
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for every hero hailed as such, many more die in obscurity despite them acting from the same core principles. (reasoning from first principles, refusing to conform to arbitrary social conventions, unappreciated gifts, etc...)
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