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a_yawning_cat's profile
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@a_yawning_cat

stray thoughts, loosely held. rat jaeger.

California, USA
aycat.substack.com
Joined December 2018

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    1.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      both of these actions combine to make it so that future has Stuff and that the Stuff is Worth Something. this is super duper important b/c it provides a guarantee of a future with which we can use to make plans around like buying a million acres for a potato farm.

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    2.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      notice how "Greedy" this system of guaranteeing the future can be. it's a promise of STUFF as well as a promise of APPETITE for all that stuff. A guarantee of gluttony.

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    3.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      when on margin, selling a call changes to "I WILL HAVE POTATOES" this is possible b/c i don't have to own potatoes, just have enough money(or credit) to show that i can have the potatoes.

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    4.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      this 'naked call' truly allows me to make money out of thin air as i don't even have to own potatoes. it's risky though b/c if suddenly potatoes skyrocket in price, my loss is potentially unbounded vs if i owned the potatoes all they could do is take my potatoes

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    5.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      like if a cabal of redditors conspire to monopolize all the potatoes and i HAVE to buy from them at 1 million per potatoes i'd go bankrupt!

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    6.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      if i'm using cash as a buffer, my brokerage would force my hand into buying potatoes as soon as the obligation of the contract exceeded my cash buffer even though if in the long run i think the monopoly would break and i could buy potatoes at their regular price.

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    7.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      it's like how casinos won't lend you money even though theoretically you can martingale strategy your way to eventual victory given enough money/credit.

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    8.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      with a naked put on the other hand you are promising to buy without necessarily being able to engorge yourself on all those potatoes. ideally the market price goes up so that you never have to actually eat so many potatoes.

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    9.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      note that a naked put can be risky but at least the risk is capped. the contract specifies a specific number of potatoes at a specific price so at least you can't be in the hole for infinity dollars unlike the reddit monopolized potato scenario. at most you just sell a kidney.

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    10.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      when combined, options allow hoomans to have some degree of control over the future. this is their MAIN strength, the ability to think into the future and plan for and around it vs animals which always live in the now.

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       🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

      it can become degenerate though because the more one projects into the future the more one takes over the Act of Creation and the more one encroaches on God's Domain.

      10:16 AM - 11 Feb 2021
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        2.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

          like if suddenly for some reason my planning creates a world that's drowning in corn i'm forced to rework my world to use all the corn. like turn it into sugar and put it in all the food even though it's not healthy for the hoomans and gives them the diabetus.

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        3.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

          when planning for the future becomes TOO accurate it tempts one to overly commit to a "sure thing" w so many resources that the plan is Too Big To Fail. everyone just agrees to rip up the contracts b/c everyone signed it directly or indirectly. *cough* 2008 *cough*

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        4.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

          the reasons are many. one is that the real world is messy and 3-body-problem-like with internally emergent black swan behaviors as well as externally imposed ones. another is that when projecting too far into the future it's hard to feel responsibility or connection w the thing

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        5.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

          government projects tend to lack quality and efficiency b/c they both tend to be larger scale and don't create a connection between the creator and the creation. Big Boy Projects where the Big Boy pretends to be God tend to be plagued by Plagues.

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        6.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

          those who can buck this trend are revered as heroes or miniature gods. it's like they can see into the future with a God's Eye. they are hailed as prophets who will lead us into the future.

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        7.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

          (though imo in order to avoid false idols it's good to apply some anthropic reasoning. at any given moment there will be ppl going stubbornly and willfully in every direction. there's always going to be someone who is aligned very well with where the world is going.)

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        8.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

          for every hero hailed as such, many more die in obscurity despite them acting from the same core principles. (reasoning from first principles, refusing to conform to arbitrary social conventions, unappreciated gifts, etc...)

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        9.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Feb 11

          TPR: options trading, cats, and potatoes

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        10. End of conversation

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