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"only 2.5% of americans owned stocks on the eve of the great crash of 1929 that sparked the Great Depression. but the majority watched in amazement as the market collapsed, wondering what it signaled about their own fate."https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1327192531155570688 …

"assuming that sth ugly will stay ugly is an easy forecast to make. and it's persuasive, because it doesn't require imagining the world changing. but problems correct and people adapt."

"it's easier to create a narrative around pessimism b/c the story pieces tend to be fresher and more recent. Optimistic narratives require looking at long stretches of history and development, which ppl tend to forget or takes more effort to piece together." (see Hans Rosling)

"there are many things in life that we think are true b/c we desperately want them to be true." e.g. why ppl did/do desperate and insane things for medical ailments. they HAVE to believe in the quackery. same for life-changing financial advice.

"The bigger the gap between what u want to be true and you need to be true to have an acceptable outcome, the more you are protecting yourself from falling victim to an appealing financial fiction."

"... ur view of the economy is suddenly going to be warped by what you want to happen. Every blip, every anecdote, will look like a sign that doom has arrived. maybe not b/c it has, but b/c you want it to."

"even though [daughter] knows little, she doesn't realize it, b/c she tells herself a coherent story about what's going on based on the little she does know." All of us, no matte our age, do the same thing."https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1350349260022190081 …

"hindsight, the ability to explain the past, gives us the illusion that the world is understandable. it gives us the illusion that the world makes sense, even when it doesn't make sense."