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"when investors have different goals and time horizons, prices that look ridiculous to one person can make sense to another, because the factors those investors pay attention to are different."

"bubbles form when the momentum of short-term returns attracts enough money that the makeup of investors shifts from mostly long term to mostly short-term." (thus breaking price discovery)

"bubbles aren't so much about valuations rising. that's just a symptom of something else: time horizons shrinking as more short-term traders enter the playing field."https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1349455340195090432 …

"bubble do their damage when long-term investors playing one game start taking their cues from those short-term traders playing another." (the magnitude of "this time it's REALLY different" energy)

"an anchor of psychology is not realizing that rational people can see the world through a different lens that your own." (rationality doesn't imply homogenization!) (though TBF, some correlation there!)

"few things matter more w/ money than understanding your own time horizon and not being persuaded by the actions and behaviors of people playing different games than you are." ("know thyself" )

"Pessimism just sounds smarter. Tell someone that everything will be great and they're likely to shrug you off. Tell someone they're in danger and you have their undivided attention."

"only 2.5% of americans owned stocks on the eve of the great crash of 1929 that sparked the Great Depression. but the majority watched in amazement as the market collapsed, wondering what it signaled about their own fate."https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1327192531155570688 …

"assuming that sth ugly will stay ugly is an easy forecast to make. and it's persuasive, because it doesn't require imagining the world changing. but problems correct and people adapt."

"it's easier to create a narrative around pessimism b/c the story pieces tend to be fresher and more recent. Optimistic narratives require looking at long stretches of history and development, which ppl tend to forget or takes more effort to piece together." (see Hans Rosling)

"there are many things in life that we think are true b/c we desperately want them to be true." e.g. why ppl did/do desperate and insane things for medical ailments. they HAVE to believe in the quackery. same for life-changing financial advice.

"The bigger the gap between what u want to be true and you need to be true to have an acceptable outcome, the more you are protecting yourself from falling victim to an appealing financial fiction."

"... ur view of the economy is suddenly going to be warped by what you want to happen. Every blip, every anecdote, will look like a sign that doom has arrived. maybe not b/c it has, but b/c you want it to."

"even though [daughter] knows little, she doesn't realize it, b/c she tells herself a coherent story about what's going on based on the little she does know." All of us, no matte our age, do the same thing."https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1350349260022190081 …

"hindsight, the ability to explain the past, gives us the illusion that the world is understandable. it gives us the illusion that the world makes sense, even when it doesn't make sense."

"we need to believe we live in a predictable controllable world, so we turn to authoritative-sounding ppl who promise to satisfy that need."

"I can't tell you what to do with your money, because I don't know you. I don't know what you want. I don't know when you want it. I don't know why you want it."

"go out of your way to find humility when things are going right and forgiveness/compassion when they go wrong. because it's never as good or as bad as it looks."

"no matter how much you earn, you will never build wealth unless you can put a lid on how much fun you can have w/ your money right now, today."

"some ppl won't sleep well unless they're earning the highest returns; others only if they're conservatively invested. to each their onw. but the foundation of "does this help me sleep at night? is the best universal guidepost for financial decisions."

"if u want to do better as an investor, the single most powerful thing you can do is increase your time horizon. time is the most powerful force in investing."

"good decisions aren't always rational. at some point you have to choose between being happy and being 'right'"

(post WWII, low interest for returning GIs kickstarted the credit consumption culture. consumption became an economic strategy.)

(lifestyle inflation of legitimately rich plus now cultural expectation for everyone to live a similar lifestyle creates mass credit usage to keep up with joneses)

Inequality => "I don't live in the world I expected. That pisses me off. so screw this. i'm going to fight for sth totally different, b/c this, whatever it its, isn't working" => Trump supporter.