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a_yawning_cat's profile
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@a_yawning_cat

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@a_yawning_cat

stray thoughts, loosely held. rat jaeger.

California, USA
aycat.substack.com
Joined December 2018

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    1.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "the more extreme the outcome, the less likely you can apply its lessons to your own life, because the more likely the outcome was influence by extreme ends of risk and luck."

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    2.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "to make money they didn't need they risked what they did have and did need. and that's foolish. if you risk sth that is important to you for sth that is unimportant to you, it just does not make any sense."

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    3.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "'Enough' is realizing that the opposite - an insatiable appetite for more - will push you to the point of regret." "The only way to know how much food you can eat is eat until you are sick. For some reason this same logic doesn't translate to business and investing."

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    4.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      chapter on positive feedback loops and compounding: "you don't need tremendous force to create tremendous results." (most of Buffet's wealth was gained when he was old. 84.2B of 84.5 was accumulated post-50s, 'his secret is time')

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    5.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "if u were a tech optimist in the 1950s u might have predicted that storage would become 1000 times larger, maybe 10,000. few would have said "30 million times larger within my lifetime" but that's what happened."

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    6.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      the danger is to ignore compounding as a strategy and chase gains. the real secret is pretty good returns u can stick with for a long time.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    7.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "but keeping money requires the opposite of taking risk. it requires humility, and fear. it requires frugality and an acceptance that at least some of what you've made is attributable to luck."

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    8.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "a plan is only useful if it can survive reality. and a future filled with unknowns is everyone's reality." "many bets fail not b/c they were wrong but b/c they were mostly right in a situation that required things to be exactly right."

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    9.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "paranoid and optimistic at the same time is hard to maintain b/c seeing things as black & white takes less effort than accepting nuance. but you need short-term paranoia to keep you alive long enough to exploit long-term optimism."

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    10.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "the great art dealers operated like index funds. they bought it in portfolios, not individual pieces they happened to like. then they sat and waited for a few winners to emerge." "it is not intuitive that an investor can be wrong half the time and still make a fortune."

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
       🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

      "tails drive everything. the distribution of success among large public stocks over time is not much different than it is in venture capital."

      9:45 PM - 19 Jan 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "40 percent of the Russell 300 stock components lost 70% of their value and never recovered. Effectively all of the index's overall returns came from 7% of component companies. That's the kind of thing u'd expect from venture capital. But it's what happened inside a boring index"

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        3.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "the decisions that you make today or tomorrow or next week will not matter nearly as much as what you do during the small number of days - likely 1% of the time or less - when everyone else around you is going crazy."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        4.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "having a strong sense of controlling one's life is more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered." (FYI being BOSS often means LESS control b/c ppl r difficult)

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        5.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "and I wanted to work hard. But doing something you love on a schedule you can't control can feel the same as doing something you hate." "Psychologists call it reactance."

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        6.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "Part of what's happened [in the US] is that we've used our greater wealth to buy bigger and better stuff. But we've simultaneously given up control over our time."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        7.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "but they did know I did not care about them, or even notice them? Did they know I was only gawking at the car, and imagining myself in the driver's seat?" (luxury goods are about PAYING to be walking billboards)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        8.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "When most people say they want to be a millionaire, what they actually mean is "I'd like to spend a million dollars." and that is literally the opposite of being a millionaire."

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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        9.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "one of the most powerful ways to increase your savings isn't to raise your income. It's to raise your humility." "ppl w/ enduring personal finance success tend to have a propensity to not give a damn what others think of them."

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        10.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          (not the interesting "not give a damn" interplay with "humility" above. arrogance is mostly about entitlement, to NOT have but think you SHOULD have.)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        11.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "savings w/o a spending goal gives u options and flexibility, the ability to wait and the opportunity to pounce. It gives you time to think. It's lets you change course on your own terms." POUNCE POUNCE POUNCE POUNCE POUNCE!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        12.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "every bit of savings is like taking a point in the future that would have been owned by someone else, and giving it back to yourself."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        13.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "when you don't have control over your time, you're forced to accept whatever bad luck is thrown your way." "savings in the bank w/ 0% interest might actually generate an extraordinary return."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        14.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "intelligence is not a reliable advantage in a world that's become as interconnected as ours has. but flexibility is." "having more control over your time and options is becoming one of the most valuable currencies in the world."

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        15.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "history is mostly the study of surprising events. but it is often used by investors and economists as an unassailable guide to the future." "experience leads to overconfidence more than forecasting ability."

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        16.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "That's the correct lesson to learn from surprises: that the world is surprising."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        17.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "there is never a moment where you're so right that you can bet every chip in front of you. the world isn't that kind to anyone - not consistently, anyways."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        18.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "can u survive your assets declining by 30%? on a spreadsheet, maybe yes. It is easy to underestimate what a 30% decline does to your psyche. Your confidence may become shot at the very moment opportunity is at its highest."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        19.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "The Germans had the most sophisticated equipment in the world. Yet there were defeated by mice." (they chewed away at the electrical systems in the fancy tanks b/c they turned all the hoomans into dogs so there were no cats)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        20.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "the biggest single point of failure with money is a sole reliance on a paycheck to fund short-term spending needs, with no savings.." "the most important part of every plan is planning on your plan not going according to plan."

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        21.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "It's hard to make enduing long-term decisions when your view of what you'll want in the future is likely to shift."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        22.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          The End of History Illusion: "All of us are walking around w/ an illusion that our personal history has come to an end, that we have just recently become the people that we were always mean to be and will be for the rest of our lives."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        23.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "some of the most miserable workers i've met are people who stay loyal to a career only b/c it's the field they picked when deciding on a college major at age 18."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        24.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "every job looks easy when you're not the one doing it b/c the challenges faced by someone in the arena are often invisible to those in the crowd." tell me about it. like this "Life" thing. do you KNOW how hard it is to catch a mouse???

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        25.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "do you know how hard it is to maintain a long-term outlook when stocks are collapsing? successful investing demands a price. but its currency is not dollars and cents, it's FUD and regret." (and FOMO)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        26.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "thinking of market volatility as a fee rather than a fine is an important part of developing the kind of mindset that lets you stick around long enough for investing gains to work in your favor."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        27.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "when investors have different goals and time horizons, prices that look ridiculous to one person can make sense to another, because the factors those investors pay attention to are different."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        28.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "bubbles form when the momentum of short-term returns attracts enough money that the makeup of investors shifts from mostly long term to mostly short-term." (thus breaking price discovery)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        29.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

           🐈 Retweeted  🐈

          "bubbles aren't so much about valuations rising. that's just a symptom of something else: time horizons shrinking as more short-term traders enter the playing field."https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1349455340195090432 …

           🐈 added,

           🐈 @a_yawning_cat
          time horizons: https://twitter.com/a_yawning_cat/status/1347234287846768640 …
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        30.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "bubble do their damage when long-term investors playing one game start taking their cues from those short-term traders playing another." (the magnitude of "this time it's REALLY different" energy)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
          Show this thread
        31.  🐈‏ @a_yawning_cat Jan 19

          "an anchor of psychology is not realizing that rational people can see the world through a different lens that your own." (rationality doesn't imply homogenization!) (though TBF, some correlation there!)

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
          Show this thread
        32. Show replies

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