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e.g. if you think you're early to crypto b/c you've read a bunch of articles on macro-economics but haven't actually gotten your hands dirty then you might be late majority but think you're an early adopter. (since no one will admit to being a laggard)

there are plenty of people who think they are early adopters but haven't even used the product. See this thread for an illumination:https://twitter.com/NeerajKA/status/1339619705192124418?s=20 …

It's a late majority temperament that fools itself(FOMO) into believing that it's part of the early majority. It *can* be an effective strategy since it's using the crowd to calibrate, but b/c the temperament is faked, the unexpected volatility often shakes loose the position.

Likewise, many early adopters were "lucky". They acted when value was *not* at all clear but in order to maintain the position of leadership as a thought leader, have to delude themselves(and thus others) that it was obvious all along.

What this collective self-delusion creates is sth I'll term the seed/sapling delusion. The belief that you're buying seeds when you're actually buying saplings. You've already missed out on the massive % growth from seed -> sapling and it's now the sapling -> establishment phase

The seed -> sapling phase is mostly innovative and experimental. It's an entirely different set of philosophies than the sapling -> established tree phase. It's like the difference between science and engineering.