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If that estimate can't be done it also means that you're trying to manifest something that's too complicated. You're a wizard Harry, not suddenly Dumbledore.

If the energy can't be brought to bear to fill in the knowledge gaps in order to "cast" the spell... then did you really want it? Magic doesn't mean "easy". Magic is just advanced technology and technology is *HARD*.

What most desires for magic are is a desire for some authority figure to package the complexity into a simple button. A magic wand is desired with the same energy a gun is. There's a rejection of responsibility.

Note that this rejection isn't necessarily bad. Many people have rejected the responsibility of being able to live as hunter/gatherers or farmers for example. Rejection of responsibility => specialization as part of society. Yay. togetherness.

Most magic (application of will unto reality) should be like gardening. You're working with primal forces with highly compressed complex systems that operate on a completely different timescale than yours. It's a servant role, not a master role.

Trying to create a high manifestation differential does increase the speed of movement towards the desired state, but it often doesn't get there. It's like sprinting the first half a marathon. You don't finish but it looked cool (number 1!) for some time.

Pulling on grass doesn't make it grow faster. The act of trying to do so indicates lack of foundational knowledge.

So... is it possible to both "apply Will unto reality" and "let things happen" They seem to be opposites. The answer is: Acceptance...subjugating will to reality. To live humbly as a 'servant' unto 'reality'.