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Trump is always ready to change tactics and doesn't care about support from the middle. Similar to Sanders he relies on voters who identify with him via a make-or-break strategy.

So I agree with LQ that BLM will not necessarily hurt Trump. The typical democratic strategy of appealing to both left and right not might work well in the current moment. Looking indecisive may cost them voters in the middle.

Also, for a lot of voters in bad shape, Trump is sort of a father figure. In his rhetoric he speaks for the oppressed and the mistreated. He might not be perfect, but has self confidence and a sense of commitment. With intensifying conflict, he speaks to their psychological needs

BT: Even when Trump won he lost the popular vote and won by razor thin margin. In his 4 years, he has strengthened his base like a talk-show host would do instead of broadening it.

Also, in 2016 Hilary was not well-liked to the point that Sander's supported voted for Trump and many democrats and independents just didn't vote. Biden does not inspire the same dislike. His problem is that his voters aren't excited for him.

COVID has had major impact on the US economy, leading Trump to lose a major source of support. For now, his loss looks to be clear. He seems to be trying to copy Nixon, winning over the silent majority via law and order.

Though, at the time Nixon was challenging the incumbent while Trump IS the incumbent. BLM also calmed down instead of escalating. The military clearly stood up to his efforts to use the military to shut down demonstrations.

When he took a picture in front of the church w/ a Bible in hand, hoping to gain support from the religious community, his violent dispersal of peaceful protestors was met w/ strong backlash.