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Moderator: I agree, I suspect a split in the GOP with some announcing a split w/ Trump either due to coronavirus or handling of BLM. He will probably have trouble taking advantage of the movement.

LQ: I'd add that there has always been a Never Trump faction in the GOP. They launched the lincoln project to oppose his reelection. Trump doesn't really have any part identification and never relied on the support of GOP party elders. His power lies in his electoral base.

WG: We see the democrats working hard to use BLM to win black votes but also worry the movement will get out of hand pushing middle voters to republicans.

Trump is always ready to change tactics and doesn't care about support from the middle. Similar to Sanders he relies on voters who identify with him via a make-or-break strategy.

So I agree with LQ that BLM will not necessarily hurt Trump. The typical democratic strategy of appealing to both left and right not might work well in the current moment. Looking indecisive may cost them voters in the middle.

Also, for a lot of voters in bad shape, Trump is sort of a father figure. In his rhetoric he speaks for the oppressed and the mistreated. He might not be perfect, but has self confidence and a sense of commitment. With intensifying conflict, he speaks to their psychological needs

BT: Even when Trump won he lost the popular vote and won by razor thin margin. In his 4 years, he has strengthened his base like a talk-show host would do instead of broadening it.

Also, in 2016 Hilary was not well-liked to the point that Sander's supported voted for Trump and many democrats and independents just didn't vote. Biden does not inspire the same dislike. His problem is that his voters aren't excited for him.