Excited for @Makeuya and @rtilleard to lay down the law on superforecasting. Or am I overconfident that this session will rock? #bx2019 @BXconference Thread!
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This room predicts the UK will *not* have exited the EU without a deal by 1 January 2020.
#bx2019#brexitpic.twitter.com/yqGg87ehDY
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Try this one weird trick (in four steps) for better policymaking (and product and service design). Note that forecasting works best with binary questions.
#bx2019pic.twitter.com/COaRl91xCH
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Results from forecasts by government officials. One interesting point - prediction of higher knife crime this year; highest confidence by home office officials.
#bx2019pic.twitter.com/VwDTAKa5xT
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Question about if mood affects forecasts.
@Makeuya notes that super-forecasters seem to be able to put mood to the side.Prikaži ovu nit -
Question about areas with high uncertainty and volatility.
@rtilleard notes that nassim taleb has critiqued forecasting along these lines, where forecasts can founder in predictions of important issues involving black swan events.#bx2019Prikaži ovu nit -
But forecasting may still be the clearest picture of a foggy sky.
#bx2019Prikaži ovu nit
Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
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They got your best side
@rtilleard ;-)Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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