Indeed. If the US extends its military presence beyond May 1, there’s a good chance the Taliban will declare the Doha deal null and void, its war against the US will be back on, a nascent and fragile intra-Afghan dialogue will fall apart, and we will be back to square one.https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1361914431387672577 …
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What do we think the chances are that this could be avoided through careful, creative diplomacy? Ignoring the ASG and all the other noise, can the Biden admin (if it's determined enough) figure out a slightly less terrible solution through dialogue with the TB?
My despair might be driving me to delusional optimism, but are there any signs that a more moderated path exists? That they can hold together the w/drawal and the deal - which IMO do need to move forward - and avoid the worst?
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Because it seems the only options I'm seeing proposed are stick to May 1 or restart the war (only to w/draw later w/o a deal)? I'm perplexed by the incoherence of a lot of editorial/expert arguments. There has to be a smarter, less out of touch approach somewhere inside the USG
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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I think if there's any path to a middle ground, it would run through stepped-up US regional diplomacy pre-May 1 that builds a critical mass of pressure to try to get the Taliban to soften its stance. But frankly that's a hard sell too.
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You are both right: ignore the "delusional" "noise", aim for a "middle ground" by May using a negotiated+ "mediated path" via "stepped up"+"creative diplomacy" using "critical mass pressure" on both Afghan sides to "avoid the worse," meaning the quagmire+chaos around the corner.
Keskustelun loppu
Uusi keskustelu -
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The US leave or stay decision will not be determined by TB actions - Reactions alone . At things stand other players like AQ & Daesh will play a role especially when their recruitments and regroupings are at its peak this year in Afghanistan.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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