Indeed. If the US extends its military presence beyond May 1, there’s a good chance the Taliban will declare the Doha deal null and void, its war against the US will be back on, a nascent and fragile intra-Afghan dialogue will fall apart, and we will be back to square one.https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1361914431387672577 …
What do we think the chances are that this could be avoided through careful, creative diplomacy? Ignoring the ASG and all the other noise, can the Biden admin (if it's determined enough) figure out a slightly less terrible solution through dialogue with the TB?
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My despair might be driving me to delusional optimism, but are there any signs that a more moderated path exists? That they can hold together the w/drawal and the deal - which IMO do need to move forward - and avoid the worst?
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Because it seems the only options I'm seeing proposed are stick to May 1 or restart the war (only to w/draw later w/o a deal)? I'm perplexed by the incoherence of a lot of editorial/expert arguments. There has to be a smarter, less out of touch approach somewhere inside the USG
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