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The worrying thing is that both sides are waiting for a clear signal from the US about what, if any, Afg policy changes will happen under Biden. This isn't a top policy priority. So they could be waiting for a while. Which means...
Spoilers on both sides can use this uncertainty to gain new ground. The risk of misperception/miscalculation is now exponentially larger, as we see both sides projecting wishful thinking and worst fears onto the US amidst this uncertainty.
It also, undoubtedly, puts the US team in Doha in an even more difficult position (as if things weren't challenging enough already). What they need is the outgoing/incoming administrations to strategize and act as one on this, which will be tough given this circs...
Maybe Biden can ultimately use this uncertainty to regain ground with both sides in negotiation and bring new momentum to the process. But that's the best possible outcome. And not the most likely
I see an extremely tough, precarious road ahead for talks in the next 6 months. (Even more so than it would have been otherwise, which is saying something...) Forget substantive progress. If both sides manage to stay at the table until Biden takes office, that will be a win.
100% agree with @ethrelkeld that we're most likely to see a continuation in the substance of Afg policy under Biden (albeit tweaks on process, tone).
But that's not what the govt wants to believe/the Taliban fears
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