Ashley Jackson

7/ So: Does Kabul hope for total policy reversal under Biden? Is Kabul a spoiler to the peace process?? No! But is the Afghan govt moving slowly through each step of a painful, dangerous process? Raising diff issues, at times making contradictory remarks on peace? Yes. Why?

9/ Many in Kabul & Washington describe ongoing efforts to lobby US national security circles: mid-level and senior figures in military, diplomacy, intel & policy, figures with strong ties & sympathies to Afghan partners. Kabul is buying time, but not to stall or ruin talks...

11/ Kabul's desire to rally support from allies in DC, to be able to enter talks alongside its superpower ally, is perfectly logical. To those who warn patience is running out, Kabul might reply: if US is headed toward withdrawal, what is there to lose? Why not plead the case?

12/ Weak point of US-led peace efforts: it didn't win the war. Talks with undefeated opponent must include heavy compromise. *US never found a way to sell this to Kabul.* Up to today, Americans haven't offered Afgh govt much, except to threaten what peace talks already hint at.

13/ Due to intensity of US pressure, Kabul has little choice but to go along. But why not appeal, & go slow? Given risks to Afghans even if talks "succeed", very real potential for talks to fall apart, & dangers of too fast a transition... govt may see little alternative. /END

That all makes sense, from a certain angle...but do we think this is actually the best available strategy? I just keep thinking its v short-sighted. Their losing political capital just as they seek to gain it from other corners.