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That all makes sense, from a certain angle...but do we think this is actually the best available strategy? I just keep thinking its v short-sighted. Their losing political capital just as they seek to gain it from other corners.
And they risk alienating Afghans. And pushing the Taliban to abandon talks. And it gives the Taliban MORE time to get more territory. I know they have any good options left. But this is just so high risk. Esp given the implausibility of recent claims, the tactics, etc
Er, don't have any good options yet (but you get my pt)
Kabul is not buying t time to strengthen its position but buying because Arg is hoping that Biden will change t Taliban policy. Unfortunately, this Arg game cost monthly thousand Afghans lives & there also no guarantee that t US election will replace t current road to peace. 1/2
As I argued in this piece, the US election doesn't matter for Afghanistan and the Afghan government have to accept that they cant invite Taliban on the same way who they invited Hekmatyiar. Taliban are t winning party at this point.https://tolonews.com/opinion/us-elections-don%E2%80%99t-matter-afghanistan …
If the goal is to preserve current constitutional order & most of its governing structure, then 'slow-rolling and lobbying against drastic disengagement' may be the only feasible strategy. Can be argued: given US trajectory, it's too late to hold that goal. But many still do.
Totally agreed, on the risks. They are so great. How can anyone accept those risks as worthwhile? If you perceive the most likely outcome of current peace efforts as state collapse/ civil war/ total anarchy, I bet you can shoulder a great deal of risk, to try and change them.
This stage of lobbying we passed long ago here in DC. Also, with covid19 and all lockdown, no one is interested to hear anything about Afghanistan. The two decades continue fraud and corruption left no door open for the Afghan government, neither in DC, nor in Brussel or London
In addition, t majority of former DoS, DoD, & congress members who previously thought differently about the TLB are today in agreement that the US needs to end this war and leave an unsuccessful Afghanistan chapter behind in US foreign policy. This incl Rubin, Laurel & all of us
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