7th Q is for @a_a_jackson: When the #ANDSF are successful in recapturing areas from the #Taliban, what kind of reception is the govt of #Afghanistan getting in those areas? #AFGPanel 25/n
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1/n I'm struggling to (a) think of any super positive examples and (b) any modestly positive examples that would even really fit the Afghanistan context. One issue is that DDR very rarely works and even where rebels stop fighting, its a messy rollercoaster ride to reintegration
2/n To expect anything faster than generational change is unrealistic. Look at the IRA. Look at FARC. Etc.
I think you can look at Aceh and a few other contexts for success stories ... but I'm not sure Afg fits this mold
#AFGPanel
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3/n However, it's not just the Taliban engaging in criminal activity. It's also the state/state actors! So I'd reframe the question: In a context where everyone is doing it, and everyone is profiting, what do you do? How do you cultivate rule of law under those cond?
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4/n And there, I'd toss the question back to the Twitterverse. Does anyone have any examples of how you reverse pervasive impunity and a political culture that benefits from collecting rents off the illicit economy? Would they fit Afghanistan?
#AFGPanel END - Näytä vastaukset
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And the scale of the opium economy in Afghanistan is incomparably larger than previous examples -- much higher % of GDP than cocaine in Colombia, for example. That's not going anywhere quickly.
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Exactly - with regional ties, whole micro (or mega) economies built on this but not accounted for... Yet the opium economy is often treated as an externality in analyses. It's just so not...
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