Ashley Jackson

#AFGPanel And if the Taliban can move fairly freely in the district, without “taking” it? And set up fixed location sharia courts, open to all, on scheduled days of the week? And control land distribution? As @muzhary recently wrote about https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/economy-development-environment/one-land-two-rules-three-case-studies-on-taleban-sales-of-state-land/ …

#AFGPanel This is what they are doing: investing, consolidating, strengthening -- off the battlefield This creeping control strategy can't be captured in stats or color-coded maps. So it is hard to assess the full dimension of control Taliban have exercise (beyond the cities)

#AFGPanel A roughly accurate control might resemble Swiss cheese (roads/DACs surrounded, fuzzy contestation in scores of districts) w a few bastions of consolidated political order (Panshjir, Bamiyan) Yet it wouldnt capture how the Taliban mobilizes governance-as-a-tactic of war

#AFGPanel I'm definitely not saying that Taliban governance is super complex or terribly sophisticated. I'm saying that it matters that they are investing in structures + consistency The more they do that, the tighter their control becomes over (a) their ranks + (b) civilians

#AFGPanel Turning to - as I'd promised - Massoud’s piece on the future govt, there are some strong (if not novel) points Fiscal deconcentration Kabul’s resource stranglehold is a longstanding outrage and has crippled SNG...and created an opening for Taliban shadow gov

#AFGPanel Massoud loses me when he proposes the Swiss model of governance. But I’m grateful he’s driving a vitally important conversation What kinds of structures do Afghans want, see as feasible, in line with national values? How do different segments of society, people see it?

#AFGPanel So often the IAN/future state discourses focus on (a) what the Taliban wants (i.e. an emirate? And if so, what exactly is that?) or (b) defending the current system There's got to be better options. And vigorous debate (among Afghans) is the only way to get there.

#AFGPanel I question parts of Massoud's proposition but desperately want more of this. An array of Afghans (from all sides of the conflict, all spectrum ends of Afghanistan's super diverse society) talking about what system will be inclusive + strong enough to hold