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#AFGPanel Even w/o announcing a "spring offensive,” Taliban attacks spiked. Particularly attacks on ANSF/checkpts/convoys/etc, in the North/NE/NW as well as South
Yet they seem to be mostly refraining from real attempts to take key terrain/district centers
#AFGPanel (Side note: Yamgan in Badakshan is an exception, but (a) they held it roughly from 2015 til Sept-ish? ’19 so it's not new ground and (b) it’s fairly marginal geopolitically/militarily speaking. I digress…)
#AFGPanel IMHO: Taliban's exercising caution, testing what they can get away + the bounds of the deal's "strategic ambiguity." They won’t pursue military objectives at all costs (i.e. if they think they'll risk the deal...which depends on the TB reading US signals correctly 
)
#AFGPanel Here’s the thing: do the TB really need to "take" much territory militarily right now?
If they can completely surround DAC so govt officials cannot leave, even to buy food?
If they can plant white TB flags 20 feet from a police checkpoint and get away with it?
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is one to which international law applies. Refer to
