Like many, I fear all of this is coming far too late. And that, in part, Afghanistan's conflict + its economic dependence on aid will make things even worse.https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/status/1240184797886062592 …
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The death toll is terrifying. Iran has a much better health system and predicts 3.5M deaths, 4% of the pop. If we apply that to Afg, its 1.4M (obv this is highly unscientific but unless I've missed them, I haven't seen any Afg estimates)https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iran-warns-coronavirus-could-kill-millions-in-the-country-1.70449088 …
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I can't even think about the challenges of implementing Ghani's plan given the political and territorial fragmentation. If there was ever a moment for a serious push for humanitarian dialogue among all parties, this is it. But I'm not optimistic.
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Has anyone sketched out, or theorised on the economic implications of something like this in Afg? What I imagine is that already we are seeing hardship b/c of the situation in Iran. There are roughly 2M Afghan workers (official est) and many are now out of work (?).
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So not only are they coming home (and possibly carrying the virus) but these families have lost a vital income source. Before we even think about the virus spread, it will already have devastating effects on 2M(ish) poor, primarily rural families.
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Status quo health crises are already a MAJOR driver of debt and poverty in Afghanistan. (Adam Pain/others at
@AREUafghanistan have done excellent work on this) So, can we imagine what will happen when a pandemic hits? What will happen to informal credit, rural/urban production?Näytä tämä ketju -
Trade. Afghanistan, particularly the border cities (Herat, J'bad, Mazar, K'har - but also smaller routes through Faryab, etc), run on trade. So what happens to bigger traders and small farmers alike? That is, if effective border controls are instituted (big "if")
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The humanitarian community in Afg still massively struggles with crisis response. But it has never dealt with anything near this scale. Things that might work in terms of econ stimuli (i.e., cash programming) are still relatively new, untested in Afg.
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