In August 2016, 41% of voters identified as Republican / GOP-leaners and 48% identified as Democrats / Dem-leaners. In August 2020, 42% of voters identify as Republicans / GOP-leaners 48% of voters identiy as Democrats / Dem-leaners.https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx …
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Couldn’t that be a function of anti-Trump Republicans becoming independents?
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It could yes, but it's not very likely i would say.
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It's a poll. They probably only polled 1200 people.
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That is more than enough people for a useful poll.
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Is that in part because Republican party membership has shrunk (leaving only the most die-hards behind)?
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It’s expanded according to Gallup
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This poll makes no sense to me. How can joe be winning by 10 pts but losing independents by that much?
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This poll is not weighted by party ID, it is weighted by 2016 vote. Thus the way the self-party ID distributes itself can often look funny eg. more republicans in the indi column, for instance.
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Need to know how this poll codes party ID. 47% Indys for Trump raises eyebrows.
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Maybe this jives with the fact that the RNC has no platform. Trump supporters do not think of themselves as Republicans. Just Trump supporters.
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