Worth noting that like any model, the 95% confidence interval on this one gets pretty wide by June. Encompasses a range from 100 deaths per day to over 10,000.
-
-
Show this thread
-
"The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways"
Show this thread -
Not an epidemiologist, but the visual thing that stands out to me is the reported deaths aligning with the model's projections of a plateau right about now. Then starting around two weeks from now, deaths start to rise sharply again.pic.twitter.com/zTHMfkTuW0
Show this thread -
What this projection suggests in terms of cumulative deathshttps://twitter.com/pbump/status/1257375865832431619?s=20 …
Show this thread -
More detail on where this projection came from in the Post's new story. Also notable: White House is apparently using a separate model that shows deaths "essentially going to zero by May 15." ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html …pic.twitter.com/mE5iRN3EWg
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
My calculation was that if the daily deaths rise to 3,000 on June 1, then we'll have about 140,000 total deaths on June 1. Does that sound right?
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
god forbid anyone tell
@AlexBerenson, he's too busy enjoying mocking folks with dead loved ones -
you really learn to see how folks could've gone along with Aktion T4 when the lives of the less economically productive are at stake
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Find that hard to believe
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.