Worth noting that like any model, the 95% confidence interval on this one gets pretty wide by June. Encompasses a range from 100 deaths per day to over 10,000.
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Trump administration "is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html …pic.twitter.com/OsaYXEDh3P
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"The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways"
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Not an epidemiologist, but the visual thing that stands out to me is the reported deaths aligning with the model's projections of a plateau right about now. Then starting around two weeks from now, deaths start to rise sharply again.pic.twitter.com/zTHMfkTuW0
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What this projection suggests in terms of cumulative deathshttps://twitter.com/pbump/status/1257375865832431619?s=20 …
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More detail on where this projection came from in the Post's new story. Also notable: White House is apparently using a separate model that shows deaths "essentially going to zero by May 15." ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html …pic.twitter.com/mE5iRN3EWg
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My calculation was that if the daily deaths rise to 3,000 on June 1, then we'll have about 140,000 total deaths on June 1. Does that sound right?
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god forbid anyone tell
@AlexBerenson, he's too busy enjoying mocking folks with dead loved ones -
you really learn to see how folks could've gone along with Aktion T4 when the lives of the less economically productive are at stake
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Find that hard to believe
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