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Bleak thought in here: under optimal conditions we are at a peak and deaths will fall as fast as they’ve risen. That means a best case scenario implies 60,000 additional deaths. And there are many reasons to suspect we are not in a best case scenario.https://twitter.com/cwarzel/status/1256603820387217408 …
Since people are *still* comparing this to the flu, I made this chart to show what it looks like when you measure flu and COVID deaths in an apples-to-apples fashion. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/02/theres-more-accurate-way-compare-coronavirus-deaths-flu/ …pic.twitter.com/cTUKlEglKb
I'm indebted to @jeremyfaust on this, who pinpointed these figures in an excellent SciAm piece last week.https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/ …
High level Flu
The numbers from previous years are incorrect according to the CDC website.
Bud, the CDC numbers are an *estimate*, not confirmed tests. The estimate is probably the right number, but if we're going to compare 
to, we need to talk about the numbers on the same basis. The *estimate* for Covid is similarly higher
Those numbers are not correct. Estimated flu deaths in 2017-2018 are 61,000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html …
Estimated versus confirmed. Think of the estimated covid deaths on top of that 60k+ confirmed already..
And to think this is only month 5. That graph will stretch a lot lot more
And thanks to the rush to re-open, it's quite possible this disease will be with us for FIVE YEARS.
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