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Prikvačeni tweet
“La philosophie antique nous apprenait à accepter notre mort. La philosophie moderne, la mort des autres.” ~ Michel Foucaultpic.twitter.com/iG4JrM8J38
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It goes like this: we want to learn probabilities & math. We end up researching cults, tribalism, echo chambers & the difference between scientific rigor and the mental equivalent of alcoholism (paranoia). Aggressive competing cultish cascades tear the fabric of human reasoning.pic.twitter.com/zYb9asZ2Z6
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François Benoux proslijedio/la je Tweet
Why is the 1918 Spanish Flu considered the mother of all pandemics? Because its effects are still there, hiding today in plain sight. https://www.acep.org/how-we-serve/sections/disaster-medicine/news/april-2018/1918-influenza-pandemic-a-united-states-timeline/ …pic.twitter.com/NdINAJVBra
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François Benoux proslijedio/la je Tweet
@_benoux_ is right, yet again. Potential catastrophes are magnets for doomsday charlatans, because it will be easy to say "I told you so". nCov is beyond the point where the naive "we need to overreact" advice is helpful. There are toooo many ways to overreact. Show us, how?https://twitter.com/_benoux_/status/1224445720716988416 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
The whole thread is an example of common sense & professionalism, in times of paranoia & simplicity science.https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby/status/1224105162756616192 …
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François Benoux proslijedio/la je Tweet
"This is almost certainly going to be a pandemic, but will it be catastrophic?"https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby/status/1224096039830843392?s=20 …
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6/ Notes: 1) WHO recognizes "knowledge gaps" (uncertain conclusions) 2) Those are just WHO recommendations, not legally binding by any nation that can apply its national policypic.twitter.com/C03uccbimD
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5/ Complexity thinking should be the ability to wage the precautionary principle so that overall benefits are *more* than harms. If you massively need masks (or other medical equipment), you may also need supplies by functioning global commerce. Unless you're fully prepared.pic.twitter.com/J3VitaiTpM
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4/ According to WHO, the overall balance of benefits and harms is *not* conclusive in favor of border closure. The border closure may just delay the spread.pic.twitter.com/hlS6KIqsZk
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3/ On border closure: 11 articles were included in the systematic review. Example: Strict border control of 99.9% may be effective in delaying the epidemic peak by 6 weeks. The epidemic peak doesn't change? This, however, is a simulation, not field data. cc
@spyrosmakridpic.twitter.com/tTT3f5xCRg
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2 / The official guide by WHO: "Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza; 2019" pdf link https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789241516839-eng.pdf …
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On border closure & travel bans
#CoronavirusOutbreak#coronaviruschina#coronaviruswuhan 1/ This is an overview of how Coronavirus compares to past zoonotic outbreaks. Very interesting summary Source: Business Insiderpic.twitter.com/Rg79akL8NP
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- Disagree w/ Eco-pocalyptic predictions? You're a bigot. - Propose China travel ban? You racist! - Question the conditions of a ban? You're a bigot and an idiot (you don't get the "complexity science").
Every false dilemma is paid off by a certain catastrophe (blame game).Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Insightful passage from the Pensées of Pascal. It appears that a "doomsday cult" is the most ancient public bet that gets paid off by tail risks. "Paranoia" (in the logical/ survival sense) is when prophets moved out of a cult (e.g. in a mountain).https://twitter.com/J_R_Johnson/status/1224473727259369472 …
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The laziest business model is that of "I told you so". Left-wings realised they can make a living by constantly predicting the failures of capitalism. Simplicity Science is similar: Catastrophologic Paranoia becomes risk analysis and "I told you so" is hidden in every corner.https://twitter.com/_benoux_/status/1224438174664945670 …
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François Benoux proslijedio/la je Tweet
Precautionary principle, explained for dummies. Except dummies do listen like "gorillas to scimpanzees & viceversa"
#cVirhttps://twitter.com/_benoux_/status/1224275702159155202 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
François Benoux proslijedio/la je Tweet
In this paradigm, I side with the trained pilot who, unlike the average Joe, is trained to avoid crashes. Epidemiologists are trained to use cautious language (non-alarming) to handle the complexity of public health "crash" (from types of panic). More https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/science-health-public-trust/perspectives/urging-vigilance-without-inciting-panic …pic.twitter.com/88Gd3TNVz6
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9/ Of course, I can't end this thread without praising the magnificence of classical education in teaching the dangers of paranoia. "λύκος γαρ εγγύς εστι!" (the wolf is near!) cries the little boy, but nobody believes him now. Aesop's fable is simple & straightforward.pic.twitter.com/Z7t5AUBzke
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8/ Ironically, the most simplistic binary thinking can be packed as "complexity". This offers an example of why we need specialties. Most non-specialists need a 3-6 year "brainwash" to follow formal & informal logic of another specialty, taking exams corrected with a red pen.
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7/ We should not forget that voters lately tend to vote *against* what media & public authorities suggest (Trump, Brexit). Medical officials know that the credibility of medical interventions is hurt by BigPharma, and get extremely cautious when addressing the public.
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6/ The "Pandemic Public Health Paradox” is when vaccination rates against serious threats of pandemic are lower than against seasonal influenza. Some attribute this to low-reporting by the media (under-scepticism). But does seasonal influenza gets more media attention?
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