New: Abortion access is a matter of economic freedom & security. Overturning Roe puts both at risk for tens of millions across the country, with the most damaging effects likely to fall on Black women.
w/ & for
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Andy Boardman
@_andyboardman
economic research & policy at ’s • Ocean State expat • views mine etc
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❕ Over at we have a brand new report up from & on worker power and how it effects upward mobility & economic security for lower-wage & disadvantaged workers.
Check it out:
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The death of the death tax: "The estate tax liability as a share of GDP fell to less than one quarter of its 2001 level following the 2017 tax act. Taxable estates at death fell almost 98 percent from the 2001 level."
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1/ (THREAD) Very interesting new study from researchers at Penn Wharton @BudgetModel on the decimation of the US estate tax: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2022/7/ @richpriz @riccoja
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In addition to GDP, this morning saw the release of the latest weekly unemployment claims numbers.
Initial claims have drifted up from historic lows in recent weeks. But growth in continuing claims remains muted, indicating laid-off workers are finding new jobs quickly.
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Minnesota has not only moved up a spot in the rankings to have the lowest unemployment rate in the nation. At 1.8%, it also now officially has the lowest rate of any state ever.
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Ouch, a new survey from Third Way indicates *only 24%* of likely midterm voters are aware that the bipartisan infrastructure law passed at all.
Many respondents seem to be confusing it with the Dem reconciliation bill that's stuck in endless limbo
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And even in "good" economic times, workers get laid off — about 1% to 1.5% of the workforce each month. Across the US, that amounts to 1 to 2 million workers.
Underscores the importance of investing in UI systems for good times and bad.
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Excellent to see: @RI_DLT awarded $2.3m from @USDOL to improve access and awareness of unemployment insurance among workers traditionally likely to face barriers to receiving support.
dol.gov/newsroom/relea
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Of course, as is also clear from this graph, RI's labor force participation remains below peak (it rose by a tick in June).
Part of this is due to an aging population. But labor force participation among 25-54 year olds was lower in 2019 than in 2007, so there's more going on.
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More on this: RI hit a matched recorded low 2.7% unemployment in June.
It also notched another record: lowest share of the civilian population that is unemployed and seeking work — 1.74%. Next lowest are May '22 and Apr '88 at 1.83%.
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And not for nothing: This news was announced yesterday. This morning, we found out RI's unemployment rate hit a recorded low (matched) of 2.7% in June.
Essential to invest in strengthening UI for good times and bad — glad to see @USDOL & @RI_DLT making that happen. twitter.com/_andyboardman/…
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Excellent to see: @RI_DLT awarded $2.3m from @USDOL to improve access and awareness of unemployment insurance among workers traditionally likely to face barriers to receiving support.
dol.gov/newsroom/relea
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Excellent to see: awarded $2.3m from to improve access and awareness of unemployment insurance among workers traditionally likely to face barriers to receiving support.
dol.gov/newsroom/relea
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Wild disconnect here, can we talk ourselves into recession? Are CFOs in denial? In 2008 CFOs were pessimistic on the economy before it hit their own company but the divide is far wider now (tho the Q was changed). Earnings expectations are still holding up ok...
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"inflation affects every shopper, while unemployment directly affects only the people who lose work. But ⬆️ unemployment also hurts🧑🎓 who can’t get their 1st jobs, depresses wage gains & frightens workers, who worry they could be the next ones fired."
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ICYMI: The end of Roe, and the state bans and restrictions that have followed it, threaten women's economic security and opportunity. Research indicates the effects will be most severe for Black women.
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The CFPB and the have fined Bank of America $225 million for botching the disbursement of state unemployment benefits at the height of the pandemic.
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From : "Dobbs and subsequent state bans on abortion will undermine women’s economic opportunity and security, with Black women likely experiencing the greatest harm."
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Workers have been experiencing steady, strong wage gains over the last year — but inflation has been rising faster. Here's how each of those contributors to real wage growth have been changing:
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"Thanks to a tight labor market, more good jobs are opening up to workers who lack a bachelor’s degree ... Employers could slap bachelor’s requirements on these kinds of listings again, if job seekers come flooding back."
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In my first enterprise story for , I looked into “second-chance hiring" amid an ongoing labor shortage. The formerly incarcerated people I spoke to said unsteady work can be another form of confinement. Some of them have now been set free.
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➡️ With today's jobs numbers, the US private sector has fully recovered — and now surpassed — its pre-pandemic employment level for the first time.
Feb. 2020 employment: 129.6 million
Jun. 2022 employment: 129.8 million
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“The data are most consistent with the notion that receiving some but not enough money made participants’ needs — and the gap between their resources and needs — more salient”
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Over 41% of women of childbearing age will see their nearest abortion clinic close as a result of the decision to overturn #RoeVsWade.
Meaning on average they'll have to travel 279 miles to the closest abortion clinic, impacting low income families most.
jec.senate.gov/public/index.c
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worth remembering that a common criticism of the policy response in spring 2020 to the covid shock was that *it wasn't liquidationist enough*
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We're Paying A Big Price For The Recession Of 2020
I wrote about how recessions leave long, lasting costs. We saw that with the aftermath of 2008/2009.
But also, even though the 2020 recession was just 2 months, it was an extremely costly 2 months bloomberg.com/news/articles/
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Replying to @jbuhl35
Dynamics on this continue to be so weird since most SALT relief proposals are scored as tax-raisers over the full budget window. This comment from Cardin is especially funny — actually, the real SALT relief is keeping the cap as-is!
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I'm not a huge fan of SALT, but I think this chart is a little misleading. It compares spending on kids, climate etc over 10 years to SALT changes over 5 — ignoring the last 5 years when SALT changes more than pay for themselves.
Here's what everything looks like over 10 years: twitter.com/josephzeballos…
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"Raising the SALT cap would drive the cost of this legislation through the roof" — talk like this is common, but the SALT provision in the House's BBB actually *raises* $15B over 10 years, per JCT score.
It's a matter of optics far more than official budget math.
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.@PunchbowlNews AM today
- The July Scramble: McConnell’s USICA threat shakes up what’s already going to be a busy month
- Dems flood airwaves with abortions ads following Roe ruling
- What’s next for @RepJeffries Team Blue
@apalmerdc @JakeSherman @heatherscope & me. Subscribe!
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Great read from on an important issue. In our review of the research for , we found overwhelming evidence abortion access has supported gains in economic opportunity & security for women, particularly Black women.
workrisenetwork.org/working-knowle
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There's been a lot of research into the economic impact of access to abortion, a delicate topic given the intense moral nature of the debate. But it's worth talking about, as policymakers grapple with ways to support lower-income women.
politico.com/news/2022/06/3
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New: Data released yesterday shows the job market continued to hum along in Rhode Island in April.
Hiring remains strong, layoffs are low, and workers continue to quit at higher rates — a sign of their confidence in the hiring market.
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NEW: Reconciliation is alive, per 3 sources
Schumer-Manchin are finalizing a prescription drug deal & plan to send it to the parliamentarian next few days
Energy/tax items being negotiated
One source touts "major progress"
Dems hoping to vote in JULY
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"Now that employers find it hard to fill positions, some are starting to widen their search to include people with criminal records ... In May 2022, the percentage of job postings on Indeed advertising fair chance hiring was up 31% from May 2019.”
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The decision whether and when to start or grow a family is a core economic issue: Research overwhelmingly shows abortion access has expanded women's economic opportunity and reduced financial hardship.
workrisenetwork.org/working-knowle
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This is a great look at the ins and outs of soaring CEO pay by .
"Even though there are many well-used ways to construct rich pay packages, companies are still finding novel ways to do so."
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Before today, about 1 percent of women in America lived more than 200 miles from an abortion clinic.
That share will soon soar: nytimes.com/interactive/20 via
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I am crushed. The effects of overturning Roe are so wide-sweeping, and one aspect that really illuminates this is the economic toll, on people who can get pregnant, on everyone, on the overall economy.
My op-ed on on the costs of overturning Roe:
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We all know women face a pay gap, earning 83c on the dollar vs men.
But women also face another inequity: A big gap in workplace dignity, per a new paper from , & .
My writeup on the dignity gap & why it matters:
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What "labor shortage"? The percentage of 16-19 year-olds working is *higher* now than before the pandemic.
If teens aren't working as lifeguards, it's because they have better job opportunities -- not because they don't want to work.
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New: Rideshare drivers are suing Uber and Lyft, saying the companies are breaking antitrust law by treating them as independent contractors but interfering with their ability to choose rides and set customer prices. With .
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