This piece is not convincing: 1 "Liberalism is visibly sagging and collapsing around us, having undermined its own foundations … its eventual demise is inevitable." Proper predictions should give a time-frame and probability estimates, not empty prophecy/wishful thinkinghttps://twitter.com/phl43/status/986352454416691202 …
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Replying to @whyvert
Why? This seems like an impossible criteria to satisfy correctly
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Replying to @_Vimothy_
not impossible, there's some basic rules of good forecasting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting …
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Replying to @whyvert
Do these rules tend to produce good predictions then?
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Replying to @_Vimothy_
the rules are necessary but not sufficient. Good predictors also need to know the realm they make predictions about. The rules are bulwark against bs punditry
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Replying to @_Vimothy_
this is the main example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project …
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Replying to @whyvert
hmm, not sure what this proves. clearly, its extremely hard to predict world-historical shifts, the fall of empires, rise of ideologies, etc, etc
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to bring it back to the OP then, I dont think its "empty prophecy" to predict the demise of liberalism and diagnose its causes, just bc u dont come up with a number and put error bars around it.
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